Skip to content
CLAUSEGROUND.
Menu
EFL Championship

Cardiff City vs Charlton Athletic — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Cardiff City

    52% means we estimate about 52 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Cardiff City 52% · Draw 24% · Charlton Athletic 24%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Charlton Athletic

    4.63 decimal odds

    Betsson · US +363

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.63 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +2.0 percentage points

    Our estimate is 24%; the price implies 22%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Cardiff Citymodel 43% · market 56% (model vs market −13.2pp)
Drawmodel 31% · market 22% (model vs market +8.8pp)
Charlton Athleticmodel 27% · market 23% (model vs market +4.4pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 42 books quote this market · margin removed 5.5%

  • Cardiff City

    1.79 at GTbets +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7955.8% implieddifference −0.1pp

  • Draw

    4.38 at BetOnline +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.6121.7% implieddifference −1.1pp

  • Charlton Athletic

    4.63 at Betsson +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.4422.5% implieddifference +0.9pp

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.423.335.2412 Sept, 13 UTC15 Sept, 12 UTC
Cardiff CityDrawCharlton Athletic
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 15–42 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 42 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookCardiff CityDrawCharlton AthleticCollected
888sport1.733.754.20
Betano1.673.904.33
Betclic1.633.634.00
Betfair Sportsbook1.734.004.20
Betfred1.734.004.33
BetMGM1.744.004.40
BetOnline1.70Best price: 4.384.26
BetRivers1.723.704.10
Betsson1.723.83Best price: 4.63
BetVictor1.673.904.33
Betway1.654.334.00
Bovada1.704.104.20
BoyleSports1.673.804.00
Casumo1.743.854.25
Codere1.754.004.40
Coolbet1.754.004.30
Coral1.754.004.40
DraftKings1.714.204.20
Fanatics1.714.004.30
FanDuel1.694.004.30
Grosvenor1.733.754.20
GTbetsBest price: 1.793.954.23
Ladbrokes1.733.904.33
LeoVegas1.794.004.40
LeoVegas1.733.854.20
LiveScore Bet1.683.704.10
LowVig1.704.384.26
Marathonbet1.694.104.20
NordicBet1.723.834.63
Paddy Power1.734.004.20
Pinnacle1.704.374.21
PMU1.713.704.10
Sky Bet1.733.904.20
Tipico1.654.004.30
Unibet1.753.904.35
Unibet1.743.854.25
Unibet1.743.854.25
Unibet1.603.704.10
Virgin Bet1.683.704.10
William Hill1.733.754.20
Winamax1.683.854.00
Winamax1.623.603.75

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 15 books quote this market · margin removed 7.1%

  • Over 2.5

    1.65 at GTbets +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7756.6% implieddifference −4.0pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.23 at BetRivers +5

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3043.4% implieddifference −1.4pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.65 to 1.65 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.561.942.3212 Sept, 13 UTC15 Sept, 12 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7–16 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 15 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetMGM1.622.15
BetRivers1.61Best price: 2.23
Betsson1.622.22
Casumo1.602.23
Codere1.602.15
Grosvenor1.602.23
GTbetsBest price: 1.652.21
LeoVegas1.622.20
LeoVegas1.602.23
NordicBet1.622.22
PMU1.512.10
Tipico1.602.20
Unibet1.602.23
Unibet1.602.23
William Hill1.652.15

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3

4 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 3

    2.14 at Bovada

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 3

    1.72 at Bovada

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.661.932.1912 Sept, 14 UTC15 Sept, 12 UTC
Over 3Under 3
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3Under 3Collected
BetOnline2.061.71
BovadaBest price: 2.14Best price: 1.72
Coolbet2.101.71
LowVig2.061.71

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 5.1%

  • Both teams score

    1.65 at Coral +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7357.7% implieddifference −2.9pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.25 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3642.3% implieddifference −2.1pp

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.481.922.3712 Sept, 13 UTC15 Sept, 12 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–8 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.622.20
CoralBest price: 1.652.15
Ladbrokes1.652.15
LeoVegas1.602.20
LiveScore Bet1.582.23
Pinnacle1.65Best price: 2.25
Virgin Bet1.582.23
William Hill1.622.20

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Cardiff City 7d, Charlton Athletic 7d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.5 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Cardiff City.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Under 2.5

Totals+1.9pp differencecombined

2.23 at BetRivers

combined fair 2.1415 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 47%model 57% · market 43% (model vs market +13.3pp)

estimate 47% · price implies 45% · +4.3% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Under 2.5 at 47%; best collected price 2.23 at betrivers implies 45% — a +1.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Charlton Athletic

Match result+2.0pp differencecombined

4.63 at Betsson

combined fair 4.2342 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 24%model 27% · market 23% (model vs market +4.4pp)

estimate 24% · price implies 22% · +9.3% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Charlton Athletic at 24%; best collected price 4.63 at betsson implies 22% — a +2.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Cardiff City vs Charlton Athletic?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Cardiff City the most likely outcome at 52%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 48%.

How does Clauseground predict Cardiff City vs Charlton Athletic?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →