Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Borussia Dortmund
69% means we estimate about 69 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Borussia Dortmund 69% · Draw 18% · Hamburger SV 13%
2 · Understand the price
Hamburger SV
9.50 decimal odds
Coolbet · US +850
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 9.50 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 13%; the price implies 11%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 69% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 1.45 | 1.36 decimal oddsMarathonbet · US −278price implies 74% | −4.7 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 18% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 5.56 | 5.70 decimal oddsTipico de · US +470price implies 18% | +0.4 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| Hamburger SV | 13% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 7.57 | 9.50 decimal oddsCoolbet · US +850price implies 11% | +2.7 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Borussia Dortmund 7d, Hamburger SV 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Borussia Dortmund.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Hamburger SV
Match result+2.7pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 11% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 13% — about 3 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Hamburger SV at 13%; best collected price 9.50 at coolbet implies 11% — a +2.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Borussia Dortmund the most likely outcome at 69%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 31%.
How does Clauseground predict Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.