Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Bayer Leverkusen
60% means we estimate about 60 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Elversberg 19% · Draw 21% · Bayer Leverkusen 60%
2 · Understand the price
Elversberg
5.75 decimal odds
Coolbet · US +475
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.75 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 19%; the price implies 17%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elversberg | 19% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 5.14 | 5.75 decimal oddsCoolbet · US +475price implies 17% | +2.1 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| Draw | 21% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 4.76 | 4.75 decimal oddsCoolbet · US +375price implies 21% | −0.0 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 60% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 1.68 | 1.58 decimal oddsCodere it · US −172price implies 63% | −3.8 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Elversberg 7d, Bayer Leverkusen 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Elversberg.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Elversberg
Match result+2.0pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 17% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 19% — about 2 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Elversberg at 19%; best collected price 5.75 at coolbet implies 17% — a +2.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Bayer Leverkusen the most likely outcome at 60%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 40%.
How does Clauseground predict Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.