Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Augsburg
45% means we estimate about 45 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Augsburg 45% · Draw 26% · FC Schalke 04 30%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
4.00 decimal odds
Betfred uk · US +300
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.00 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.6 percentage points
Our estimate is 26%; the price implies 25%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | 45% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.24 | 2.17 decimal oddsCoolbet · US +117price implies 46% | −1.4 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 26% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.90 | 4.00 decimal oddsBetfred uk · US +300price implies 25% | +0.6 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| FC Schalke 04 | 30% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.37 | 3.32 decimal oddsMarathonbet · US +232price implies 30% | −0.4 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Augsburg 7d, FC Schalke 04 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Augsburg.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Draw
Match result+0.7pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 25% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 26% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Draw at 26%; best collected price 4.00 at betfred_uk implies 25% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Augsburg the most likely outcome at 45%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 55%.
How does Clauseground predict Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.