Borussia Monchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 — market analysis & odds
Final score: 3–4
Final score: Borussia Monchengladbach 3–4 FSV Mainz 05. Pre-match, Clauseground's combined estimate was Borussia Monchengladbach 32%, the draw 26%, FSV Mainz 05 42%. FSV Mainz 05 won — an outcome we carried at 42%. That was the combined estimate's most likely single result.
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Pre-match model vs market
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Borussia Monchengladbach 7d, FSV Mainz 05 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Borussia Monchengladbach.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Questions
Who won Borussia Monchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 won: the final score was Borussia Monchengladbach 3–4 FSV Mainz 05. Clauseground's pre-match blend carried that outcome at 42%. That probability described uncertainty; it did not promise the result.
How does Clauseground predict Borussia Monchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.