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Bundesliga

Elversberg vs Bayern Munich — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Bayern Munich

    79% means we estimate about 79 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Elversberg 9% · Draw 13% · Bayern Munich 79%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Elversberg

    17.00 decimal odds

    Marathonbet · US +1600

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 17.00 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +2.9 percentage points

    Our estimate is 9%; the price implies 6%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Elversbergmodel 17% · market 6% (model vs market +10.5pp)
Drawmodel 21% · market 10% (model vs market +10.7pp)
Bayern Munichmodel 63% · market 84% (model vs market −21.2pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 46 books quote this market · margin removed 3.8%

  • Elversberg

    17.00 at Marathonbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 16.276.1% implieddifference +0.3pp

  • Draw

    10.00 at Betano +4

    collected

    no-vig reference 9.9610.0% implieddifference +0.0pp

  • Bayern Munich

    1.18 at BetMGM +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.1983.8% implieddifference −0.9pp

Draw drifted from 8.66 to 9.60 (+10.9%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

-0.849.5920.0210 Sept, 10 UTC13 Sept, 09 UTC
ElversbergDrawBayern Munich
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 44–46 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 46 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookElversbergDrawBayern MunichCollected
888sport13.008.501.15
Betano13.00Best price: 10.001.12
Betclic13.259.001.13
Betfair Sportsbook16.009.501.14
Betfred15.009.001.14
BetMGM11.009.00Best price: 1.18
BetOnline15.009.501.16
BetRivers14.009.001.13
Betsson16.008.801.13
BetUS14.259.301.15
BetVictor13.0010.001.12
Betway13.009.001.15
Bovada14.009.001.15
BoyleSports11.009.001.11
Caesars13.009.001.13
Casumo14.009.001.13
Codere14.009.801.14
Coolbet16.009.501.16
Coral11.009.001.18
DraftKings12.008.501.13
Everygame13.009.001.14
Fanatics15.009.001.13
FanDuel13.008.501.11
Grosvenor15.009.001.14
GTbets13.708.941.16
Ladbrokes11.009.001.18
LeoVegas14.008.501.12
LeoVegas13.009.001.13
LiveScore Bet13.008.501.12
LowVig15.009.501.16
MarathonbetBest price: 17.009.001.16
NordicBet16.008.801.13
Paddy Power15.009.501.12
Pinnacle15.689.601.15
PMU14.008.501.13
Sky Bet15.0010.001.11
Suprabets14.009.001.14
Tipico14.0010.001.14
Unibet16.009.501.14
Unibet16.009.501.15
Unibet14.009.501.14
Unibet12.008.601.10
Virgin Bet14.009.001.13
William Hill13.008.501.15
Winamax11.5010.001.13
Winamax11.009.001.12

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 4.5

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 18 books quote this market · margin removed 3.0%

  • Over 4.5

    1.91 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9351.9% implieddifference −0.4pp

  • Under 4.5

    2.02 at BetOnline +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0848.1% implieddifference −1.4pp

Under 4.5 drifted from 1.85 to 2.02 (+9.2%) over 23h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.701.972.2310 Sept, 10 UTC13 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 4.5Under 4.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–18 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 18 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 4.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 4.5Under 4.5Collected
BetMGM1.801.91
BetOnline1.83Best price: 2.02
BetRivers1.831.92
BetUS1.832.00
Bovada1.851.98
Casumo1.831.92
Codere1.701.99
CoolbetBest price: 1.911.98
Grosvenor1.831.92
GTbets1.831.96
LeoVegas1.851.93
LeoVegas1.732.02
LowVig1.832.02
Pinnacle1.872.02
PMU1.751.81
Tipico1.751.97
Unibet1.851.93
Unibet1.831.92

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 6.0%

  • Over 2.5

    1.12 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.1984.3% implieddifference −5.0pp

  • Under 2.5

    6.40 at Betsson +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 6.3615.7% implieddifference +0.1pp

Under 2.5 drifted from 5.00 to 6.00 (+20.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

0.493.767.0310 Sept, 10 UTC13 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
Betsson1.11Best price: 6.40
NordicBet1.116.40
William HillBest price: 1.126.00

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 9 books quote this market · margin removed 3.7%

  • Both teams score

    1.50 at Coral +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.5564.7% implieddifference −2.0pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.73 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.8335.3% implieddifference −1.3pp

Not both teams score drifted from 2.49 to 2.73 (+9.6%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.352.122.8810 Sept, 10 UTC13 Sept, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 9 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 9 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.442.62
CoralBest price: 1.502.45
Ladbrokes1.502.40
LeoVegas1.472.55
LiveScore Bet1.472.50
Paddy Power1.442.60
Pinnacle1.49Best price: 2.73
Virgin Bet1.472.50
William Hill1.442.62

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Elversberg 8d, Bayern Munich 3d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Elversberg.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Under 4.5

Totals+4.0pp differencecombined

2.02 at BetOnline

combined fair 1.8718 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 53%model 70% · market 48% (model vs market +21.6pp)

estimate 53% · price implies 50% · +8.0% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Under 4.5 at 53%; best collected price 2.02 at betonlineag implies 50% — a +4.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Under 2.5

Totals+3.5pp differencecombined

6.40 at Betsson

combined fair 5.223 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 19%model 29% · market 16% (model vs market +13.7pp)

estimate 19% · price implies 16% · +22.6% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Under 2.5 at 19%; best collected price 6.40 at betsson implies 16% — a +3.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Elversberg vs Bayern Munich?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Bayern Munich the most likely outcome at 79%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 21%.

How does Clauseground predict Elversberg vs Bayern Munich?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →