Orlando City SC vs Real Salt Lake — market analysis & odds

Sat 22 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Real Salt Lake
49% means we estimate about 49 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Orlando City SC 29% · Draw 22% · Real Salt Lake 49%
2 · Understand the price
Real Salt Lake
2.63 decimal odds
Leovegas se · US +163
collected 02:52 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.63 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+11.2 percentage points
Our estimate is 49%; the price implies 38%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 02:52 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Orlando City SCmodel 29% · market —

Drawmodel 22% · market —

Real Salt Lakemodel 49% · market —

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

02:52 UTC

13 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

Orlando City SC
2.43 at LeoVegas
collected 02:52 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Draw
4.10 at LeoVegas
collected 02:52 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Real Salt Lake
2.63 at LeoVegas
collected 02:52 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Orlando City SC	2.43LeoVegas	02:52 UTC	—	—
Draw	4.10LeoVegas	02:52 UTC	—	—
Real Salt Lake	2.63LeoVegas	02:52 UTC	—	—

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Orlando City SCDrawReal Salt Lake

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 9–13 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.

Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Orlando City SC	Draw	Real Salt Lake	Collected
Betclic	2.15	3.55	2.43	02:52 UTC
BetRivers	2.35	3.90	2.55	02:52 UTC
Casumo	2.35	3.90	2.55	02:52 UTC
Grosvenor	2.30	3.80	2.50	02:52 UTC
LeoVegas	Best price: 2.43	Best price: 4.10	Best price: 2.63	02:52 UTC
LeoVegas	2.30	3.75	2.50	02:52 UTC
LiveScore Bet	2.25	3.70	2.43	02:52 UTC
PMU	2.30	3.75	2.48	02:52 UTC
Unibet	2.35	3.90	2.55	02:52 UTC
Unibet	2.35	3.90	2.55	02:52 UTC
Virgin Bet	2.25	3.70	2.43	02:52 UTC
Winamax	2.20	3.70	2.40	02:52 UTC
Winamax	2.15	3.60	2.35	02:52 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

02:52 UTC

7 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

Over 3.5
1.85 at BetRivers +4
collected 02:52 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3.5
1.91 at BetRivers +4
collected 02:52 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3.5	1.85BetRivers +4	02:52 UTC	—	—
Under 3.5	1.91BetRivers +4	02:52 UTC	—	—

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Over 3.5Under 3.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.

Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3.5	Under 3.5	Collected
BetRivers	Best price: 1.85	Best price: 1.91	02:52 UTC
Casumo	1.85	1.91	02:52 UTC
Grosvenor	1.83	1.88	02:52 UTC
LeoVegas	1.85	1.91	02:52 UTC
PMU	1.73	1.79	02:52 UTC
Unibet	1.85	1.91	02:52 UTC
Unibet	1.85	1.91	02:52 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Orlando City SC 21d, Real Salt Lake 21d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Orlando City SC.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Orlando City SC vs Real Salt Lake?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Real Salt Lake the most likely outcome at 49%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 51%.

How does Clauseground predict Orlando City SC vs Real Salt Lake?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.