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Eredivisie

Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    NEC Nijmegen

    58% means we estimate about 58 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Willem II 21% · Draw 21% · NEC Nijmegen 58%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Willem II

    5.60 decimal odds

    Unibet nl · US +460

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.60 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +3.2 percentage points

    Our estimate is 21%; the price implies 18%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Willem IImodel 26% · market 19% (model vs market +6.5pp)
Drawmodel 23% · market 21% (model vs market +2.5pp)
NEC Nijmegenmodel 51% · market 60% (model vs market −9.1pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 42 books quote this market · margin removed 5.7%

  • Willem II

    5.60 at Unibet

    collected

    no-vig reference 5.1319.5% implieddifference +1.6pp

  • Draw

    4.75 at Coolbet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.8520.6% implieddifference −0.4pp

  • NEC Nijmegen

    1.60 at Betsson +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6759.9% implieddifference −2.6pp

Willem II shortened from 5.24 to 4.86 (−7.3%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

0.993.826.6510 Aug, 10 UTC13 Aug, 09 UTC
Willem IIDrawNEC Nijmegen
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 39–42 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 42 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookWillem IIDrawNEC NijmegenCollected
888sport4.804.201.57
Betano5.004.401.55
BetAnySports4.874.621.58
Betclic4.704.351.47
Betfair Sportsbook5.004.601.55
Betfred5.004.331.53
BetMGM5.004.601.54
BetOnline4.874.621.58
BetRivers5.004.201.53
Betsson4.954.45Best price: 1.60
BetUS4.874.621.58
BetVictor5.004.401.55
Betway4.504.501.55
Bovada4.804.551.57
BoyleSports4.504.501.50
Casumo5.204.351.55
Codere5.004.601.56
Coolbet5.00Best price: 4.751.56
Coral4.604.201.50
DraftKings4.804.501.57
Fanatics5.254.751.56
FanDuel5.004.601.54
Grosvenor5.304.401.56
Ladbrokes4.604.201.50
LeoVegas4.904.101.50
LiveScore Bet4.904.101.50
LowVig4.874.621.58
Marathonbet4.904.401.56
NordicBet4.954.451.60
Paddy Power4.754.501.50
Pinnacle4.864.591.58
PMU5.004.101.51
Sky Bet4.604.201.50
Tipico5.204.501.52
UnibetBest price: 5.604.601.57
Unibet5.204.351.55
Unibet5.004.601.55
Unibet4.754.401.47
Virgin Bet4.904.101.50
William Hill4.804.201.57
Winamax4.504.501.50
Winamax4.404.301.49

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

15 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 3.5

    2.12 at Casumo +3

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 3.5

    1.80 at BetUS

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.761.962.1610 Aug, 10 UTC13 Aug, 09 UTC
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 13–15 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 15 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3.5Under 3.5Collected
BetAnySports1.971.79
BetMGM1.981.71
BetOnline2.071.79
BetRivers2.101.68
BetUS1.95Best price: 1.80
CasumoBest price: 2.121.70
Codere1.981.71
Coolbet2.031.76
Grosvenor2.121.70
LeoVegas2.071.66
LowVig2.071.79
PMU1.971.57
Tipico2.051.70
Unibet2.121.70
Unibet2.121.70

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.1%

  • Over 2.5

    1.43 at Betsson +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.5066.7% implieddifference −3.3pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.80 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.0033.3% implieddifference −2.4pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.40 to 1.40 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.232.133.0210 Aug, 10 UTC13 Aug, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetssonBest price: 1.432.75
NordicBet1.432.75
William Hill1.40Best price: 2.80

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%

  • Both teams score

    1.50 at Betfred +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6162.0% implieddifference −4.6pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.50 at Betfred

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.6338.0% implieddifference −2.0pp

Both teams score held from 1.50 to 1.50 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.382.002.6210 Aug, 10 UTC13 Aug, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.50Best price: 2.50
Coral1.502.45
Ladbrokes1.502.40
LiveScore Bet1.482.45
Virgin Bet1.482.45
William Hill1.502.45

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Willem II 7d, NEC Nijmegen 7d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 3.2 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Willem II.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Willem II

Match result+3.3pp differencecombined

5.60 at Unibet

combined fair 4.7442 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 21%model 26% · market 19% (model vs market +6.5pp)

estimate 21% · price implies 18% · +18.2% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Willem II at 21%; best collected price 5.60 at unibet_nl implies 18% — a +3.2pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes NEC Nijmegen the most likely outcome at 58%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 42%.

How does Clauseground predict Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →