SC Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam — market analysis & odds

Fri 14 Aug, 18:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
SC Telstar
44% means we estimate about 44 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: SC Telstar 44% · Draw 26% · Sparta Rotterdam 30%
2 · Understand the price
SC Telstar
2.32 decimal odds
Unibet nl · US +132
collected 21:14 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.32 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.5 percentage points
Our estimate is 44%; the price implies 43%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 18:14 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

SC Telstarmodel 48% · market 42% (model vs market +5.3pp)

Drawmodel 27% · market 26% (model vs market +0.8pp)

Sparta Rotterdammodel 26% · market 32% (model vs market −6.2pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

21:14 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 42 books quote this market · margin removed 3.9%

SC Telstar
2.32 at Unibet
collected 21:14 UTC
no-vig reference 2.3742.2% implieddifference −0.9pp
Draw
3.85 at Coolbet
collected 21:14 UTC
no-vig reference 3.8825.8% implieddifference −0.2pp
Sparta Rotterdam
3.10 at Unibet
collected 21:14 UTC
no-vig reference 3.1332.0% implieddifference −0.3pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
SC Telstar	2.32Unibet	21:14 UTC	2.3742.2% implied	−0.9pp
Draw	3.85Coolbet	21:14 UTC	3.8825.8% implied	−0.2pp
Sparta Rotterdam	3.10Unibet	21:14 UTC	3.1332.0% implied	−0.3pp

Draw drifted from 3.68 to 3.73 (+1.4%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

SC TelstarDrawSparta Rotterdam

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 41–42 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 42 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	SC Telstar	Draw	Sparta Rotterdam	Collected
888sport	2.20	3.40	2.88	21:14 UTC
Betano	2.20	3.70	2.90	21:14 UTC
BetAnySports	2.29	3.63	2.96	21:14 UTC
Betclic	2.13	3.53	2.88	21:14 UTC
Betfair Sportsbook	2.20	3.80	2.80	21:14 UTC
Betfred	2.20	3.60	2.80	21:14 UTC
BetMGM	2.25	3.70	2.90	21:14 UTC
BetOnline	2.29	3.63	2.96	21:14 UTC
BetRivers	2.18	3.35	2.90	21:14 UTC
Betsson	2.25	3.60	2.95	21:14 UTC
BetUS	2.23	3.60	2.93	21:14 UTC
BetVictor	2.20	3.70	2.90	21:14 UTC
Betway	2.20	3.60	2.90	21:14 UTC
Bovada	2.23	3.60	2.93	21:14 UTC
BoyleSports	2.10	3.60	2.70	21:14 UTC
Casumo	2.23	3.45	3.00	21:14 UTC
Codere	2.25	3.60	2.95	21:14 UTC
Coolbet	2.25	Best price: 3.85	2.90	21:14 UTC
Coral	2.25	3.70	2.90	21:14 UTC
DraftKings	2.25	3.65	2.95	21:14 UTC
Fanatics	2.25	3.60	2.90	21:14 UTC
FanDuel	2.20	3.80	2.85	21:14 UTC
Grosvenor	2.25	3.55	3.05	21:14 UTC
Ladbrokes	2.25	3.60	2.90	21:14 UTC
LeoVegas	2.15	3.30	2.85	21:14 UTC
LiveScore Bet	2.15	3.30	2.85	21:14 UTC
LowVig	2.29	3.63	2.96	21:14 UTC
Marathonbet	2.24	3.55	2.90	21:14 UTC
NordicBet	2.25	3.60	2.95	21:14 UTC
Paddy Power	2.15	3.70	2.80	21:14 UTC
Pinnacle	2.28	3.73	3.01	21:14 UTC
PMU	2.18	3.35	2.88	21:14 UTC
Sky Bet	2.15	3.50	2.70	21:14 UTC
Tipico	2.15	3.70	3.00	21:14 UTC
Unibet	Best price: 2.32	3.65	Best price: 3.10	21:14 UTC
Unibet	2.25	3.60	2.90	21:14 UTC
Unibet	2.23	3.45	3.00	21:14 UTC
Unibet	2.10	3.50	2.85	21:14 UTC
Virgin Bet	2.15	3.30	2.85	21:14 UTC
William Hill	2.20	3.40	2.88	21:14 UTC
Winamax	2.15	3.60	2.80	21:14 UTC
Winamax	2.10	3.50	2.75	21:14 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

21:14 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 12 books quote this market · margin removed 8.1%

Over 2.5
1.61 at Casumo +3
collected 21:14 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7058.9% implieddifference −3.2pp
Under 2.5
2.36 at Betsson +1
collected 21:14 UTC
no-vig reference 2.4341.1% implieddifference −1.3pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.61Casumo +3	21:14 UTC	1.7058.9% implied	−3.2pp
Under 2.5	2.36Betsson +1	21:14 UTC	2.4341.1% implied	−1.3pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.57 to 1.57 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–13 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 12 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
BetMGM	1.54	2.25	21:14 UTC
BetRivers	1.60	2.25	21:14 UTC
Betsson	1.56	Best price: 2.36	21:14 UTC
Casumo	Best price: 1.61	2.25	21:14 UTC
Codere	1.54	2.28	21:14 UTC
Grosvenor	1.61	2.25	21:14 UTC
LeoVegas	1.57	2.20	21:14 UTC
NordicBet	1.56	2.36	21:14 UTC
PMU	1.50	2.12	21:14 UTC
Unibet	1.61	2.25	21:14 UTC
Unibet	1.61	2.25	21:14 UTC
William Hill	1.57	2.25	21:14 UTC

Total goals 3

21:14 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 3.4%

Over 3
2.02 at BetOnline +1
collected 21:14 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0249.6% implieddifference +0.1pp
Under 3
1.92 at Pinnacle
collected 21:14 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9850.4% implieddifference −1.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3	2.02BetOnline +1	21:14 UTC	2.0249.6% implied	+0.1pp
Under 3	1.92Pinnacle	21:14 UTC	1.9850.4% implied	−1.7pp

Under 3 drifted from 1.90 to 1.92 (+1.1%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Over 3Under 3

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3	Under 3	Collected
BetAnySports	1.93	1.82	21:14 UTC
BetOnline	Best price: 2.02	1.82	21:14 UTC
BetUS	1.91	1.83	21:14 UTC
Bovada	1.93	1.89	21:14 UTC
Coolbet	1.96	1.82	21:14 UTC
LowVig	2.02	1.82	21:14 UTC
Pinnacle	1.95	Best price: 1.92	21:14 UTC

Both teams to score

21:14 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%

Both teams score
1.53 at Betfred
collected 21:14 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6162.0% implieddifference −3.3pp
Not both teams score
2.50 at Coral +1
collected 21:14 UTC
no-vig reference 2.6338.0% implieddifference −2.0pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.53Betfred	21:14 UTC	1.6162.0% implied	−3.3pp
Not both teams score	2.50Coral +1	21:14 UTC	2.6338.0% implied	−2.0pp

Both teams score held from 1.50 to 1.50 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.53	2.38	21:14 UTC
Coral	1.48	Best price: 2.50	21:14 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.48	2.50	21:14 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.48	2.43	21:14 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.48	2.43	21:14 UTC
William Hill	1.50	2.45	21:14 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: SC Telstar 6d, Sparta Rotterdam 5d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3.2 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for SC Telstar.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win SC Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes SC Telstar the most likely outcome at 44%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 56%.

How does Clauseground predict SC Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.