Ajax vs Heerenveen — market analysis & odds

Sun 16 Aug, 14:45 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Ajax
64% means we estimate about 64 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Ajax 64% · Draw 19% · Heerenveen 16%
2 · Understand the price
Heerenveen
6.75 decimal odds
Unibet nl · US +575
collected 22:14 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 6.75 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.2 percentage points
Our estimate is 16%; the price implies 15%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 22:14 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Ajaxmodel 61% · market 66% (model vs market −5.1pp)

Drawmodel 21% · market 19% (model vs market +2.3pp)

Heerenveenmodel 18% · market 15% (model vs market +2.8pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

22:14 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 42 books quote this market · margin removed 5.6%

Ajax
1.47 at Betsson +1
collected 22:14 UTC
no-vig reference 1.5265.7% implieddifference −2.3pp
Draw
5.20 at Unibet
collected 22:14 UTC
no-vig reference 5.2918.9% implieddifference −0.3pp
Heerenveen
6.75 at Unibet
collected 22:14 UTC
no-vig reference 6.5115.4% implieddifference +0.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Ajax	1.47Betsson +1	22:14 UTC	1.5265.7% implied	−2.3pp
Draw	5.20Unibet	22:14 UTC	5.2918.9% implied	−0.3pp
Heerenveen	6.75Unibet	22:14 UTC	6.5115.4% implied	+0.6pp

Heerenveen held from 6.19 to 6.16 (−0.5%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

AjaxDrawHeerenveen

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 40–42 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 42 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Ajax	Draw	Heerenveen	Collected
888sport	1.44	4.50	6.00	22:14 UTC
Betano	1.40	5.00	6.50	22:14 UTC
BetAnySports	1.45	4.90	5.90	22:14 UTC
Betclic	1.38	4.60	5.60	22:14 UTC
Betfair Sportsbook	1.40	4.75	6.50	22:14 UTC
Betfred	1.40	4.60	6.00	22:14 UTC
BetMGM	1.45	5.00	6.00	22:14 UTC
BetOnline	1.45	4.90	5.90	22:14 UTC
BetRivers	1.40	4.70	6.00	22:14 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 1.47	4.55	6.40	22:14 UTC
BetUS	1.45	4.90	5.90	22:14 UTC
BetVictor	1.40	5.00	6.50	22:14 UTC
Betway	1.43	5.00	5.75	22:14 UTC
Bovada	1.43	4.95	6.00	22:14 UTC
BoyleSports	1.40	4.75	5.50	22:14 UTC
Casumo	1.41	4.90	6.25	22:14 UTC
Codere	1.45	4.80	5.80	22:14 UTC
Coolbet	1.44	5.00	6.50	22:14 UTC
Coral	1.44	5.00	6.00	22:14 UTC
DraftKings	1.44	4.90	6.00	22:14 UTC
Fanatics	1.44	5.00	6.00	22:14 UTC
FanDuel	1.40	4.80	6.50	22:14 UTC
Grosvenor	1.43	5.00	6.50	22:14 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.44	4.80	6.00	22:14 UTC
LeoVegas	1.38	4.60	5.80	22:14 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.38	4.60	5.80	22:14 UTC
LowVig	1.45	4.90	5.90	22:14 UTC
Marathonbet	1.41	4.80	6.45	22:14 UTC
NordicBet	1.47	4.55	6.40	22:14 UTC
Paddy Power	1.36	4.50	6.00	22:14 UTC
Pinnacle	1.44	5.01	6.16	22:14 UTC
PMU	1.40	4.60	6.00	22:14 UTC
Sky Bet	1.36	4.33	5.75	22:14 UTC
Tipico	1.42	5.00	6.00	22:14 UTC
Unibet	1.45	4.75	6.00	22:14 UTC
Unibet	1.43	Best price: 5.20	Best price: 6.75	22:14 UTC
Unibet	1.41	4.90	6.25	22:14 UTC
Unibet	1.38	4.65	5.70	22:14 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.38	4.60	5.80	22:14 UTC
William Hill	1.44	4.50	6.00	22:14 UTC
Winamax	1.41	4.70	5.30	22:14 UTC
Winamax	1.40	4.60	5.20	22:14 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

22:14 UTC

15 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

Over 3.5
2.06 at Coolbet
collected 22:14 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3.5
1.83 at BetAnySports +3
collected 22:14 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3.5	2.06Coolbet	22:14 UTC	—	—
Under 3.5	1.83BetAnySports +3	22:14 UTC	—	—

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Over 3.5Under 3.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 13–15 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.

Every book’s current price — 15 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3.5	Under 3.5	Collected
BetAnySports	1.92	Best price: 1.83	22:14 UTC
BetMGM	1.95	1.74	22:14 UTC
BetOnline	2.01	1.83	22:14 UTC
BetRivers	1.94	1.79	22:14 UTC
BetUS	1.91	1.83	22:14 UTC
Casumo	1.95	1.80	22:14 UTC
Codere	1.99	1.70	22:14 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 2.06	1.74	22:14 UTC
Grosvenor	1.95	1.80	22:14 UTC
LeoVegas	1.92	1.76	22:14 UTC
LowVig	2.01	1.83	22:14 UTC
PMU	1.83	1.68	22:14 UTC
Tipico	1.95	1.77	22:14 UTC
Unibet	1.95	1.80	22:14 UTC
Unibet	1.95	1.80	22:14 UTC

Total goals 2.5

22:14 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.1%

Over 2.5
1.40 at Betsson +2
collected 22:14 UTC
no-vig reference 1.5066.7% implieddifference −4.8pp
Under 2.5
2.85 at Betsson +1
collected 22:14 UTC
no-vig reference 3.0033.3% implieddifference −1.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.40Betsson +2	22:14 UTC	1.5066.7% implied	−4.8pp
Under 2.5	2.85Betsson +1	22:14 UTC	3.0033.3% implied	−1.8pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.40 to 1.40 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	Best price: 1.40	Best price: 2.85	22:14 UTC
NordicBet	1.40	2.85	22:14 UTC
William Hill	1.40	2.80	22:14 UTC

Both teams to score

22:14 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 7.2%

Both teams score
1.57 at Betfred +1
collected 22:14 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6859.4% implieddifference −4.3pp
Not both teams score
2.33 at LiveScore Bet +1
collected 22:14 UTC
no-vig reference 2.4640.6% implieddifference −2.3pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.57Betfred +1	22:14 UTC	1.6859.4% implied	−4.3pp
Not both teams score	2.33LiveScore Bet +1	22:14 UTC	2.4640.6% implied	−2.3pp

Both teams score held from 1.57 to 1.57 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.57	2.25	22:14 UTC
Coral	1.55	2.30	22:14 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.55	2.30	22:14 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.52	Best price: 2.33	22:14 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.52	2.33	22:14 UTC
William Hill	1.57	2.30	22:14 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Ajax 7d, Heerenveen 7d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3.2 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Ajax.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Heerenveen

Match result+1.3pp differencecombined

6.75 at Unibet

combined fair 6.2342 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 16%model 18% · market 15% (model vs market +2.8pp)

estimate 16% · price implies 15% · +8.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Heerenveen at 16%; best collected price 6.75 at unibet_nl implies 15% — a +1.2pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 22:09 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Ajax vs Heerenveen?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Ajax the most likely outcome at 64%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 36%.

How does Clauseground predict Ajax vs Heerenveen?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.