FC Twente Enschede vs FC Zwolle — market analysis & odds

Sun 16 Aug, 12:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
FC Twente Enschede
75% means we estimate about 75 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: FC Twente Enschede 75% · Draw 15% · FC Zwolle 10%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
7.07 decimal odds
Pinnacle · US +607
collected 23:14 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 7.07 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 15%; the price implies 14%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 23:14 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

FC Twente Enschedemodel 67% · market 78% (model vs market −10.5pp)

Drawmodel 19% · market 13% (model vs market +6.0pp)

FC Zwollemodel 13% · market 9% (model vs market +4.5pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

23:14 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 41 books quote this market · margin removed 6.0%

FC Twente Enschede
1.27 at BetMGM
collected 23:14 UTC
no-vig reference 1.2878.0% implieddifference −0.8pp
Draw
7.07 at Pinnacle
collected 23:14 UTC
no-vig reference 7.4913.3% implieddifference −0.8pp
FC Zwolle
11.00 at Betano +6
collected 23:14 UTC
no-vig reference 11.538.7% implieddifference −0.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
FC Twente Enschede	1.27BetMGM	23:14 UTC	1.2878.0% implied	−0.8pp
Draw	7.07Pinnacle	23:14 UTC	7.4913.3% implied	−0.8pp
FC Zwolle	11.00Betano +6	23:14 UTC	11.538.7% implied	−0.4pp

FC Twente Enschede held from 1.21 to 1.21 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

FC Twente EnschedeDrawFC Zwolle

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 28–41 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 41 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	FC Twente Enschede	Draw	FC Zwolle	Collected
888sport	1.22	6.00	10.00	23:14 UTC
Betano	1.22	6.50	Best price: 11.00	23:14 UTC
Betclic	1.18	6.10	9.00	23:14 UTC
Betfair Sportsbook	1.20	6.50	11.00	23:14 UTC
Betfred	1.22	6.00	10.00	23:14 UTC
BetMGM	Best price: 1.27	6.50	9.75	23:14 UTC
BetOnline	1.21	7.05	10.70	23:14 UTC
BetRivers	1.23	6.00	9.00	23:14 UTC
Betsson	1.25	6.40	10.50	23:14 UTC
BetUS	1.21	7.05	10.70	23:14 UTC
BetVictor	1.22	6.50	11.00	23:14 UTC
Betway	1.20	7.00	10.00	23:14 UTC
Bovada	1.21	7.00	10.75	23:14 UTC
BoyleSports	1.22	6.00	8.50	23:14 UTC
Casumo	1.24	6.25	10.00	23:14 UTC
Codere	1.24	6.20	9.60	23:14 UTC
Coolbet	1.24	6.50	11.00	23:14 UTC
Coral	1.25	6.50	9.50	23:14 UTC
DraftKings	1.21	6.50	10.00	23:14 UTC
Fanatics	1.24	6.50	10.00	23:14 UTC
FanDuel	1.21	6.50	11.00	23:14 UTC
Grosvenor	1.25	6.40	10.00	23:14 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.25	6.50	9.50	23:14 UTC
LeoVegas	1.21	5.80	9.00	23:14 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.21	5.80	9.00	23:14 UTC
LowVig	1.21	7.05	10.70	23:14 UTC
Marathonbet	1.21	6.50	11.00	23:14 UTC
NordicBet	1.25	6.40	10.50	23:14 UTC
Paddy Power	1.18	6.00	10.00	23:14 UTC
Pinnacle	1.21	Best price: 7.07	10.88	23:14 UTC
PMU	1.20	5.75	9.00	23:14 UTC
Sky Bet	1.20	5.25	8.00	23:14 UTC
Tipico	1.20	7.00	10.50	23:14 UTC
Unibet	1.26	6.75	11.00	23:14 UTC
Unibet	1.25	6.50	10.00	23:14 UTC
Unibet	1.24	6.25	10.00	23:14 UTC
Unibet	1.19	6.00	9.00	23:14 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.21	5.80	9.00	23:14 UTC
William Hill	1.22	6.00	10.00	23:14 UTC
Winamax	1.21	6.00	8.00	23:14 UTC
Winamax	1.19	5.80	7.75	23:14 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

23:14 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 16 books quote this market · margin removed 5.1%

Over 3.5
1.96 at Pinnacle
collected 23:14 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0648.6% implieddifference −2.5pp
Under 3.5
1.94 at Casumo +3
collected 23:14 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9451.4% implieddifference −0.1pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3.5	1.96Pinnacle	23:14 UTC	2.0648.6% implied	−2.5pp
Under 3.5	1.94Casumo +3	23:14 UTC	1.9451.4% implied	−0.1pp

Over 3.5 held from 1.96 to 1.96 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Over 3.5Under 3.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8–16 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 16 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3.5	Under 3.5	Collected
BetMGM	1.87	1.83	23:14 UTC
BetOnline	1.93	1.88	23:14 UTC
BetRivers	1.80	1.93	23:14 UTC
BetUS	1.87	1.87	23:14 UTC
Bovada	1.95	1.87	23:14 UTC
Casumo	1.81	Best price: 1.94	23:14 UTC
Codere	1.83	1.84	23:14 UTC
Coolbet	1.90	1.87	23:14 UTC
Grosvenor	1.81	1.94	23:14 UTC
LeoVegas	1.77	1.91	23:14 UTC
LowVig	1.93	1.88	23:14 UTC
Pinnacle	Best price: 1.96	1.85	23:14 UTC
PMU	1.70	1.83	23:14 UTC
Tipico	1.83	1.90	23:14 UTC
Unibet	1.81	1.94	23:14 UTC
Unibet	1.81	1.94	23:14 UTC

Total goals 2.5

23:14 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 8.2%

Over 2.5
1.34 at Betsson +1
collected 23:14 UTC
no-vig reference 1.4171.1% implieddifference −3.5pp
Under 2.5
3.20 at William Hill
collected 23:14 UTC
no-vig reference 3.4628.9% implieddifference −2.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.34Betsson +1	23:14 UTC	1.4171.1% implied	−3.5pp
Under 2.5	3.20William Hill	23:14 UTC	3.4628.9% implied	−2.4pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.30 to 1.30 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	Best price: 1.34	3.14	23:14 UTC
NordicBet	1.34	3.14	23:14 UTC
William Hill	1.30	Best price: 3.20	23:14 UTC

Both teams to score

23:14 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 8.4%

Both teams score
1.75 at Coral +2
collected 23:14 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9052.7% implieddifference −4.4pp
Not both teams score
2.12 at LiveScore Bet +1
collected 23:14 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1147.3% implieddifference +0.1pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.75Coral +2	23:14 UTC	1.9052.7% implied	−4.4pp
Not both teams score	2.12LiveScore Bet +1	23:14 UTC	2.1147.3% implied	+0.1pp

Both teams score held from 1.75 to 1.75 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–6 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	1.73	2.00	23:14 UTC
Coral	Best price: 1.75	1.95	23:14 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.75	1.95	23:14 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.63	Best price: 2.12	23:14 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.63	2.12	23:14 UTC
William Hill	1.75	1.95	23:14 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: FC Twente Enschede 7d, FC Zwolle 7d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3.2 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for FC Twente Enschede.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Under 3.5

Totals+0.8pp differencecombined

1.94 at Casumo

combined fair 1.9116 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 52%model 55% · market 51% (model vs market +3.5pp)

estimate 52% · price implies 52% · +1.5% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Under 3.5 at 52%; best collected price 1.94 at casumo implies 52% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 23:10 UTC

Draw

Match result+0.7pp differencecombined

7.07 at Pinnacle

combined fair 6.7341 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 15%model 19% · market 13% (model vs market +6.0pp)

estimate 15% · price implies 14% · +5.0% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 15%; best collected price 7.07 at pinnacle implies 14% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 23:10 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win FC Twente Enschede vs FC Zwolle?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes FC Twente Enschede the most likely outcome at 75%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 25%.

How does Clauseground predict FC Twente Enschede vs FC Zwolle?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.