TSG Hoffenheim vs Augsburg — market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
TSG Hoffenheim
59% means we estimate about 59 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: TSG Hoffenheim 59% · Draw 19% · Augsburg 22%
2 · Understand the price
Augsburg
4.50 decimal odds
Betfred uk · US +350
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.50 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
−0.4 percentage points
Our estimate is 22%; the price implies 22%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
The price implies a higher chance than our estimate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 5.0%
TSG Hoffenheim
1.67 at Bovada +1
collected
no-vig reference 1.7557.0% implieddifference −2.9pp
Draw
4.78 at Pinnacle
collected
no-vig reference 5.0219.9% implieddifference −1.0pp
Augsburg
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: TSG Hoffenheim 21d, Augsburg 22d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for TSG Hoffenheim.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Augsburg
Match result+1.9pp differencereference market5.00 at Betfred
no-vig 4.5811 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
estimate 22% · price implies 20% · +9.3% expected return if the estimate is right
Questions
Who is most likely to win TSG Hoffenheim vs Augsburg?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes TSG Hoffenheim the most likely outcome at 59%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 41%.
How does Clauseground predict TSG Hoffenheim vs Augsburg?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.