FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin — market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
FSV Mainz 05
63% means we estimate about 63 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: FSV Mainz 05 63% · Draw 20% · Union Berlin 16%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
4.80 decimal odds
Tipico de · US +380
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.80 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
−0.4 percentage points
Our estimate is 20%; the price implies 21%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
The price implies a higher chance than our estimate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 5.2%
FSV Mainz 05
1.51 at Marathonbet
collected
no-vig reference 1.5863.4% implieddifference −2.8pp
Draw
4.80 at Tipico
collected
no-vig reference 4.8920.4% implieddifference −0.4pp
Union Berlin
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: FSV Mainz 05 21d, Union Berlin 20d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for FSV Mainz 05.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
No current price clears the publication threshold.
The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.
Questions
Who is most likely to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes FSV Mainz 05 the most likely outcome at 63%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 37%.
How does Clauseground predict FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.