Hamburger SV vs Bayern Munich — market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Bayern Munich
85% means we estimate about 85 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Hamburger SV 7% · Draw 9% · Bayern Munich 85%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
12.00 decimal odds
Tipico de · US +1100
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 12.00 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.6 percentage points
Our estimate is 9%; the price implies 8%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 5.6%
Hamburger SV
16.25 at Marathonbet
collected
no-vig reference 15.256.6% implieddifference +0.4pp
Draw
12.00 at Tipico
collected
no-vig reference 11.208.9% implieddifference +0.6pp
Bayern Munich
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Hamburger SV 22d, Bayern Munich 21d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Hamburger SV.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Draw
Match result+0.6pp differencereference market12.00 at Tipico
no-vig 11.2014 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
estimate 9% · price implies 8% · +7.2% expected return if the estimate is right
Questions
Who is most likely to win Hamburger SV vs Bayern Munich?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Bayern Munich the most likely outcome at 85%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 15%.
How does Clauseground predict Hamburger SV vs Bayern Munich?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.