Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea — market analysis & odds
· The City Ground, Nottingham
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Chelsea
37% means we estimate about 37 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Nottingham Forest 36% · Draw 27% · Chelsea 37%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
3.64 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +264
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.64 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
−0.4 percentage points
Our estimate is 27%; the price implies 27%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
The price implies a higher chance than our estimate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 15 books quote this market · margin removed 4.7%
Nottingham Forest
2.75 at Tipico
collected
no-vig reference 2.8135.6% implieddifference −0.7pp
Draw
3.64 at Marathonbet
collected
no-vig reference 3.7027.1% implieddifference −0.4pp
Chelsea
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Nottingham Forest 20d, Chelsea 19d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.85 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Nottingham Forest.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
No current price clears the publication threshold.
The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Chelsea the most likely outcome at 37%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 63%.
How does Clauseground predict Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.