This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.60 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.4 percentage points
Our estimate is 23%; the price implies 22%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Expert analysisFull detail remains available
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Sparta Rotterdammodel 24% · market 23% (model vs market +0.9pp)
model
market
Drawmodel 24% · market 22% (model vs market +1.5pp)
model
market
AZ Alkmaarmodel 52% · market 54% (model vs market −2.3pp)
model
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 28 books quote this market · margin removed 5.0%
estimate 23% · price implies 22% · +6.3% expected returnif the estimate is right
Questions
Who is most likely to win Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes AZ Alkmaar the most likely outcome at 54%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 46%.
How does Clauseground predict Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.
market
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
– Sparta Rotterdam held from 4.12 to 4.12 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
Sparta RotterdamDrawAZ Alkmaar
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 22–28 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price— 28 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Sparta Rotterdam
Draw
AZ Alkmaar
Collected
Betclic
3.78
3.80
1.63
Betfred
4.00
3.75
1.70
BetMGM
4.10
4.20
1.74
BetRivers
4.20
4.00
1.64
Betsson
4.23
4.14
1.69
Bovada
4.05
4.15
1.73
BoyleSports
3.75
4.00
1.67
Casumo
3.80
4.00
1.67
Codere
4.10
3.95
1.73
Coral
4.20
4.20
Best price: 1.75★
DraftKings
4.00
4.10
1.71
Fanatics
4.10
4.30
1.71
Grosvenor
4.25
4.10
1.64
Ladbrokes
4.00
4.20
1.73
LeoVegas
4.10
3.95
1.61
LiveScore Bet
4.20
4.00
1.63
Marathonbet
4.20
4.20
1.68
NordicBet
4.30
4.20
1.70
Pinnacle
4.12
4.24
1.75
PMU
4.10
3.90
1.60
Tipico
4.40
4.10
1.67
Unibet
Best price: 4.60★
Best price: 4.40★
1.71
Unibet
4.35
4.20
1.66
Unibet
4.00
4.00
1.73
Unibet
3.55
3.60
1.54
Virgin Bet
4.20
4.00
1.63
Winamax
3.65
3.90
1.64
Winamax
3.55
3.80
1.62
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 3.5
10 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown
Over 3.5
2.10 at Grosvenor +2
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3.5
1.71 at Codere +4
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Outcome
Best collected price
Collected
No-vig reference
Difference
Over 3.5
2.10Grosvenor +2
—
—
Under 3.5
1.71Codere +4
—
—
No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.
Every book’s current price— 10 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Over 3.5
Under 3.5
Collected
BetMGM
2.05
1.69
BetRivers
2.08
1.70
Codere
1.98
Best price: 1.71★
Grosvenor
Best price: 2.10★
1.71
LeoVegas
Total goals 3.25
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 4.4%
– Over 3.25 held from 1.90 to 1.90 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
Every book’s current price— 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.25. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Over 3.25
Under 3.25
Collected
Bovada
1.89
Best price: 1.93★
Casumo
1.80
1.83
Pinnacle
Best price: 1.90★
1.93
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams to score
5 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown
Both teams score
1.48 at Coral
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Not both teams score
2.62 at Betfred
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Outcome
Best collected price
Collected
No-vig reference
Difference
Both teams score
1.48Coral
—
—
Not both teams score
2.62Betfred
—
—
No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.
Every book’s current price— 5 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Both teams score
Not both teams score
Collected
Betfred
1.44
Best price: 2.62★
Coral
Best price: 1.48★
2.60
Ladbrokes
1.44
2.50
LiveScore Bet
1.43
2.55
No-vig reference market puts Sparta Rotterdam at 23%; best collected price 4.60 at unibet_nl implies 22% — a +1.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8–10 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
2.05
1.67
Marathonbet
2.06
1.71
PMU
1.95
1.60
Tipico
2.05
1.70
Unibet
2.10
1.71
Unibet
2.10
1.71
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Over 3.25Under 3.25
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–3 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–5 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Virgin Bet
1.43
2.55
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.