This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.90 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 21%; the price implies 20%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Expert analysisFull detail remains available
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Werder Bremenmodel 43% · market 57% (model vs market −14.7pp)
model
market
Drawmodel 26% · market 22% (model vs market +4.8pp)
model
market
Hamburger SVmodel 31% · market 21% (model vs market +9.9pp)
model
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 40 books quote this market · margin removed 4.0%
estimate 40% · price implies 39% · +1.8% expected returnif the estimate is right
Questions
Who is most likely to win Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Werder Bremen the most likely outcome at 57%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 43%.
How does Clauseground predict Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.
market
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
▲ Draw drifted from 4.41 to 4.44 (+0.7%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
Werder BremenDrawHamburger SV
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 36–40 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price— 40 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Werder Bremen
Draw
Hamburger SV
Collected
888sport
1.65
4.00
4.50
Betclic
1.58
3.88
4.15
Betfair Sportsbook
1.67
4.20
4.33
Betfred
1.67
4.20
4.60
BetMGM
1.71
4.00
4.40
BetRivers
1.65
4.00
4.60
Betsson
1.62
4.15
4.80
BetVictor
1.57
4.00
3.90
Betway
1.61
4.33
4.20
Bovada
1.67
4.35
4.50
BoyleSports
1.60
4.20
4.00
Caesars
1.67
4.05
4.50
Casumo
1.62
4.00
4.33
Codere
1.69
4.10
4.50
Coolbet
1.67
4.20
4.75
Coral
Best price: 1.73★
4.00
4.40
DraftKings
1.62
4.00
4.20
Everygame
1.62
4.20
4.33
Fanatics
1.69
4.10
4.50
FanDuel
1.62
4.20
4.40
Grosvenor
1.64
4.00
4.50
Ladbrokes
1.70
4.00
4.33
LeoVegas
1.64
4.10
4.30
LeoVegas
1.63
3.95
4.50
LiveScore Bet
1.61
3.90
4.40
Marathonbet
1.67
4.40
4.65
NordicBet
1.62
4.20
4.80
Paddy Power
1.65
4.00
4.33
Pinnacle
1.68
Best price: 4.44★
4.56
PMU
1.56
3.75
4.25
Sky Bet
1.67
4.20
4.33
Tipico
1.65
4.40
4.50
Unibet
1.70
4.30
Best price: 4.90★
Unibet
1.68
4.20
4.80
Unibet
1.67
4.00
4.35
Unibet
1.48
3.80
4.10
Virgin Bet
1.64
4.00
4.50
William Hill
1.65
4.00
4.50
Winamax
1.64
4.20
4.20
Winamax
1.60
4.00
4.00
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 3.5
11 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown
Over 3.5
2.33 at LeoVegas +1
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3.5
1.65 at Tipico
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Outcome
Best collected price
Collected
No-vig reference
Difference
Over 3.5
2.33LeoVegas +1
—
—
Under 3.5
1.65Tipico
—
—
No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.
Every book’s current price— 11 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Over 3.5
Under 3.5
Collected
BetMGM
2.25
1.57
BetRivers
2.30
1.57
Codere
2.21
1.57
Grosvenor
2.30
1.57
LeoVegas
Best price: 2.33★
Total goals 3
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 3.4%
▼ Over 3 shortened from 1.85 to 1.83 (−1.1%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
Every book’s current price— 4 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Over 3
Under 3
Collected
Bovada
1.82
2.02
Casumo
1.75
1.85
Coolbet
1.76
2.03
Pinnacle
Best price: 1.83★
Best price: 2.05★
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams to score
no-vig from William Hill alone · 9 books quote this market · margin removed 6.2%
– Both teams score held from 1.62 to 1.62 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price— 9 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Both teams score
Not both teams score
Collected
Betfred
1.53
2.38
Coral
1.53
2.37
Ladbrokes
1.53
2.30
LeoVegas
1.53
2.35
LiveScore Bet
1.53
No-vig reference market puts Under 2.5 at 40%; best collected price 2.56 at betsson implies 39% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Hamburger SV
Match result+0.7pp differencereference market
4.90 at Unibet
no-vig 4.74·40 books priced this outcome·no 24h reference
estimate 21% · price implies 20% · +3.4% expected returnif the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Hamburger SV at 21%; best collected price 4.90 at unibet_se implies 20% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 10–11 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across.
1.60
LeoVegas
2.20
1.57
Marathonbet
2.29
1.64
PMU
2.17
1.50
Tipico
2.15
Best price: 1.65★
Unibet
2.33
1.60
Unibet
2.30
1.57
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Over 3Under 3
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 9 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
2.38
Paddy Power
1.50
Best price: 2.40★
Sky Bet
1.50
2.38
Virgin Bet
1.53
2.38
William Hill
Best price: 1.62★
2.25
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.