This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 22.00 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.3 percentage points
Our estimate is 5%; the price implies 5%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Expert analysisFull detail remains available
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Bayern Munichmodel 76% · market 88% (model vs market −12.3pp)
model
market
Drawmodel 15% · market 7% (model vs market +7.9pp)
model
market
1. FC Kölnmodel 9% · market 5% (model vs market +4.4pp)
model
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 37 books quote this market · margin removed 4.1%
Who is most likely to win Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Köln?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Bayern Munich the most likely outcome at 88%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 12%.
How does Clauseground predict Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Köln?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.
market
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
– 1. FC Köln held from 19.83 to 19.90 (+0.4%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
Bayern MunichDraw1. FC Köln
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 33–39 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price— 39 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Bayern Munich
Draw
1. FC Köln
Collected
888sport
1.08
11.00
19.00
Betclic
1.05
9.50
16.50
Betfair Sportsbook
1.08
12.00
17.00
Betfred
1.10
11.00
19.00
BetMGM
Best price: 1.11★
11.00
19.50
BetRivers
1.08
11.00
20.00
BetUS
1.08
13.00
18.00
Bovada
1.08
13.00
18.00
BoyleSports
1.09
10.00
17.00
Caesars
1.08
11.00
20.00
Casumo
1.08
9.00
17.00
Codere
1.09
11.00
20.00
Coolbet
1.10
11.00
20.00
Coral
1.11
11.00
19.00
DraftKings
1.07
10.00
16.00
Everygame
1.07
11.00
15.00
Fanatics
1.09
11.50
21.00
FanDuel
1.07
11.00
17.00
Grosvenor
1.08
10.50
19.00
Ladbrokes
1.11
11.00
19.00
LeoVegas
1.07
10.00
17.00
LeoVegas
1.07
10.50
19.00
LiveScore Bet
1.07
10.00
18.00
Marathonbet
1.10
11.75
Best price: 22.00★
Paddy Power
1.07
11.00
16.00
Pinnacle
1.09
13.67
19.90
PMU
1.03
9.50
17.00
Sky Bet
1.08
11.00
17.00
Tipico
1.07
Best price: 14.00★
20.00
Unibet
1.11
12.50
21.00
Unibet
1.11
12.50
21.00
Unibet
1.08
10.00
21.00
Unibet
1.03
7.40
13.00
Virgin Bet
1.08
10.50
19.00
William Hill
1.08
11.00
19.00
Winamax
1.07
12.00
16.00
Winamax
1.05
11.00
15.00
Betsson
1.06
11.50
—
NordicBet
1.07
11.50
—
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 4.5
11 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown
Over 4.5
2.12 at Marathonbet
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 4.5
1.74 at LeoVegas +2
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Outcome
Best collected price
Collected
No-vig reference
Difference
Over 4.5
2.12Marathonbet
—
—
Under 4.5
1.74LeoVegas +2
—
—
No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.
Every book’s current price— 11 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 4.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Over 4.5
Under 4.5
Collected
BetMGM
2.05
1.69
BetRivers
2.06
1.73
Codere
2.03
1.68
Grosvenor
2.06
1.73
LeoVegas
2.08
1.74
Total goals 4.25
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 4.2%
▲ Under 4.25 drifted from 1.91 to 1.92 (+0.5%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
Over 4.25
Every book’s current price— 4 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 4.25. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Over 4.25
Under 4.25
Collected
BetUS
1.91
1.91
Bovada
1.91
1.91
Casumo
1.85
1.83
Pinnacle
Best price: 1.92★
Best price: 1.92★
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams to score
no-vig from William Hill alone · 9 books quote this market · margin removed 8.1%
– Both teams score held from 1.85 to 1.85 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price— 9 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Both teams score
Not both teams score
Collected
Betfred
1.83
1.83
Coral
1.85
1.85
Ladbrokes
1.85
1.85
LeoVegas
1.85
1.85
LiveScore Bet
1.83
Over 4.5Under 4.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 11 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Best price:
★
LeoVegas
2.02
1.68
Marathonbet
Best price: 2.12★
1.74
PMU
1.94
1.64
Tipico
2.05
1.70
Unibet
2.08
1.74
Unibet
2.06
1.73
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Under 4.25
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 9 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Best price: 1.89★
Paddy Power
1.85
1.85
Sky Bet
Best price: 1.91★
1.80
Virgin Bet
1.83
1.89
William Hill
1.85
1.85
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.