Millwall vs Derby County — market analysis & odds
Final score: 4–1
Final score: Millwall 4–1 Derby County. Pre-match, Clauseground's combined estimate was Millwall 55%, the draw 24%, Derby County 20%. Millwall won — an outcome we carried at 55%. That was the combined estimate's most likely single result.
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Pre-match model vs market
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Millwall 7d, Derby County 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.5 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Millwall.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Questions
Who won Millwall vs Derby County?
Millwall won: the final score was Millwall 4–1 Derby County. Clauseground's pre-match blend carried that outcome at 55%. That probability described uncertainty; it did not promise the result.
How does Clauseground predict Millwall vs Derby County?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.