Atlas vs Puebla — market analysis & odds
Final score: 4–3
Final score: Atlas 4–3 Puebla. Pre-match, Clauseground's combined estimate was Atlas 51%, the draw 26%, Puebla 23%. Atlas won — an outcome we carried at 51%. That was the combined estimate's most likely single result.
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Pre-match model vs market
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Atlas 4d, Puebla 4d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Atlas.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Questions
Who won Atlas vs Puebla?
Atlas won: the final score was Atlas 4–3 Puebla. Clauseground's pre-match blend carried that outcome at 51%. That probability described uncertainty; it did not promise the result.
How does Clauseground predict Atlas vs Puebla?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.