Major League Soccer

Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC— market analysis & odds

Thu 20 Aug, 00:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Minnesota United FC
54% means we estimate about 54 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Minnesota United FC 54% · Draw 24% · Atlanta United FC 22%
2 · Understand the price
Atlanta United FC
4.70 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +370
collected 11:32 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.70 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.0 percentage points
Our estimate is 22%; the price implies 21%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 11:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Minnesota United FCmodel 48% · market 56% (model vs market −7.7pp)

Drawmodel 27% · market 23% (model vs market +3.7pp)

Atlanta United FCmodel 25% · market 21% (model vs market +4.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 11 books quote this market · margin removed 8.7%

Minnesota United FC
1.72 at Coolbet
collected 11:32 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7955.8% implieddifference −2.4pp
Draw
4.00 at Coolbet +4
collected 11:32 UTC
no-vig reference 4.3523.0% implieddifference −2.0pp
Atlanta United FC
4.70 at Marathonbet
collected 11:32 UTC
no-vig reference 4.7121.2% implieddifference −0.0pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Minnesota United FC	1.72Coolbet	11:32 UTC	1.7955.8% implied	−2.4pp
Draw	4.00Coolbet +4	11:32 UTC	4.3523.0% implied	−2.0pp
Atlanta United FC	4.70Marathonbet	11:32 UTC	4.7121.2% implied	−0.0pp

Draw drifted from 3.70 to 4.00 (+8.1%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Minnesota United FCDrawAtlanta United FC

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 11 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 11 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Minnesota United FC	Draw	Atlanta United FC	Collected
888sport	1.65	4.00	4.33	11:32 UTC
Betclic	1.67	3.27	3.43	11:32 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 1.72	Best price: 4.00	4.50	11:32 UTC
FanDuel	1.67	4.00	4.50	11:32 UTC
LeoVegas	1.65	3.75	4.30	11:32 UTC
Marathonbet	1.67	3.86	Best price: 4.70	11:32 UTC
Paddy Power	1.67	4.00	4.50	11:32 UTC
Sky Bet	1.67	3.75	4.20	11:32 UTC
William Hill	1.65	4.00	4.33	11:32 UTC
Winamax	1.60	3.70	4.10	11:32 UTC
Winamax	1.58	3.65	4.00	11:32 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Minnesota United FC 18d, Atlanta United FC 18d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Minnesota United FC.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Atlanta United FC

Match result+0.7pp differencecombined

4.65 at Marathonbet

combined fair 4.5011 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 22%model 25% · market 21% (model vs market +4.0pp)

estimate 22% · price implies 22% · +3.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Atlanta United FC at 22%; best collected price 4.65 at marathonbet implies 22% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Minnesota United FC the most likely outcome at 54%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 46%.

How does Clauseground predict Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.