Major League Soccer

New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC— market analysis & odds

Wed 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Nashville SC
46% means we estimate about 46 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: New York Red Bulls 31% · Draw 23% · Nashville SC 46%
2 · Understand the price
Nashville SC
2.32 decimal odds
Betsson · US +132
collected 11:32 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.32 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.6 percentage points
Our estimate is 46%; the price implies 43%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 11:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

New York Red Bullsmodel 20% · market 35% (model vs market −14.5pp)

Drawmodel 21% · market 24% (model vs market −2.8pp)

Nashville SCmodel 59% · market 41% (model vs market +17.3pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 9.9%

New York Red Bulls
2.82 at Betsson +1
collected 11:32 UTC
no-vig reference 2.8834.7% implieddifference −0.7pp
Draw
3.90 at FanDuel
collected 11:32 UTC
no-vig reference 4.1823.9% implieddifference −1.7pp
Nashville SC
2.32 at Betsson +1
collected 11:32 UTC
no-vig reference 2.4241.3% implieddifference −1.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
New York Red Bulls	2.82Betsson +1	11:32 UTC	2.8834.7% implied	−0.7pp
Draw	3.90FanDuel	11:32 UTC	4.1823.9% implied	−1.7pp
Nashville SC	2.32Betsson +1	11:32 UTC	2.4241.3% implied	−1.8pp

Draw drifted from 3.60 to 3.80 (+5.6%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

New York Red BullsDrawNashville SC

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 11–13 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	New York Red Bulls	Draw	Nashville SC	Collected
888sport	2.62	3.80	2.20	11:32 UTC
Betclic	2.63	3.50	2.02	11:32 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 2.82	3.70	Best price: 2.32	11:32 UTC
Coolbet	2.80	3.85	2.30	11:32 UTC
FanDuel	2.75	Best price: 3.90	2.25	11:32 UTC
LeoVegas	2.70	3.60	2.15	11:32 UTC
Marathonbet	2.79	3.74	2.24	11:32 UTC
NordicBet	2.82	3.70	2.32	11:32 UTC
Paddy Power	2.70	3.80	2.25	11:32 UTC
Sky Bet	2.60	3.60	2.15	11:32 UTC
William Hill	2.62	3.80	2.20	11:32 UTC
Winamax	2.60	3.65	2.05	11:32 UTC
Winamax	2.55	3.60	2.05	11:32 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

11:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%

Over 2.5
1.50 at William Hill
collected 11:32 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6162.0% implieddifference −4.6pp
Under 2.5
2.58 at Betsson +1
collected 11:32 UTC
no-vig reference 2.6338.0% implieddifference −0.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.50William Hill	11:32 UTC	1.6162.0% implied	−4.6pp
Under 2.5	2.58Betsson +1	11:32 UTC	2.6338.0% implied	−0.8pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.50 to 1.50 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–3 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	1.49	Best price: 2.58	11:32 UTC
NordicBet	1.49	2.58	11:32 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 1.50	2.45	11:32 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: New York Red Bulls 18d, Nashville SC 18d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for New York Red Bulls.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Nashville SC

Match result+2.6pp differencecombined

2.32 at Betsson

combined fair 2.1913 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 46%model 59% · market 41% (model vs market +17.3pp)

estimate 46% · price implies 43% · +6.0% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Nashville SC at 46%; best collected price 2.32 at betsson implies 43% — a +2.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Nashville SC the most likely outcome at 46%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 54%.

How does Clauseground predict New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.