Major League Soccer

D.C. United vs New England Revolution— market analysis & odds

Wed 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
D.C. United
44% means we estimate about 44 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: D.C. United 44% · Draw 26% · New England Revolution 31%
2 · Understand the price
New England Revolution
3.40 decimal odds
Coolbet · US +240
collected 11:12 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.40 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 31%; the price implies 29%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 11:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

D.C. Unitedmodel 38% · market 46% (model vs market −8.2pp)

Drawmodel 26% · market 25% (model vs market +0.8pp)

New England Revolutionmodel 36% · market 29% (model vs market +7.4pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:12 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 9.0%

D.C. United
2.08 at Betsson +1
collected 11:12 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1845.9% implieddifference −2.2pp
Draw
3.75 at Coolbet
collected 11:12 UTC
no-vig reference 3.9225.5% implieddifference −1.2pp
New England Revolution
3.40 at Coolbet +1
collected 11:12 UTC
no-vig reference 3.4928.7% implieddifference −0.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
D.C. United	2.08Betsson +1	11:12 UTC	2.1845.9% implied	−2.2pp
Draw	3.75Coolbet	11:12 UTC	3.9225.5% implied	−1.2pp
New England Revolution	3.40Coolbet +1	11:12 UTC	3.4928.7% implied	−0.7pp

Draw drifted from 3.30 to 3.60 (+9.1%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

D.C. UnitedDrawNew England Revolution

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 11–13 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	D.C. United	Draw	New England Revolution	Collected
888sport	2.00	3.60	3.20	11:12 UTC
Betclic	1.94	3.07	2.83	11:12 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 2.08	3.70	3.35	11:12 UTC
Coolbet	2.05	Best price: 3.75	Best price: 3.40	11:12 UTC
FanDuel	2.00	3.70	3.40	11:12 UTC
LeoVegas	1.92	3.55	3.25	11:12 UTC
Marathonbet	2.01	3.64	3.34	11:12 UTC
NordicBet	2.08	3.70	3.35	11:12 UTC
Paddy Power	1.95	3.70	3.30	11:12 UTC
Sky Bet	1.91	3.50	3.10	11:12 UTC
William Hill	2.00	3.60	3.20	11:12 UTC
Winamax	1.88	3.50	3.15	11:12 UTC
Winamax	1.84	3.45	3.10	11:12 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

11:12 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 7.6%

Over 2.5
1.70 at William Hill
collected 11:12 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8354.7% implieddifference −4.2pp
Under 2.5
2.12 at Betsson +1
collected 11:12 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2145.3% implieddifference −1.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.70William Hill	11:12 UTC	1.8354.7% implied	−4.2pp
Under 2.5	2.12Betsson +1	11:12 UTC	2.2145.3% implied	−1.8pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.70 to 1.70 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	1.68	Best price: 2.12	11:12 UTC
LeoVegas	1.62	2.02	11:12 UTC
NordicBet	1.68	2.12	11:12 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 1.70	2.05	11:12 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: D.C. United 18d, New England Revolution 18d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for D.C. United.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

New England Revolution

Match result+1.1pp differencecombined

3.40 at Coolbet

combined fair 3.2813 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 31%model 36% · market 29% (model vs market +7.4pp)

estimate 31% · price implies 29% · +3.7% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts New England Revolution at 31%; best collected price 3.40 at coolbet implies 29% — a +1.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win D.C. United vs New England Revolution?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes D.C. United the most likely outcome at 44%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 56%.

How does Clauseground predict D.C. United vs New England Revolution?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.