Major League Soccer

Columbus Crew SC vs CF Montreal— market analysis & odds

Wed 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Columbus Crew SC
57% means we estimate about 57 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Columbus Crew SC 57% · Draw 22% · CF Montreal 21%
2 · Understand the price
CF Montreal
5.30 decimal odds
FanDuel · US +430
collected 11:12 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.30 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.9 percentage points
Our estimate is 21%; the price implies 19%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 11:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Columbus Crew SCmodel 51% · market 60% (model vs market −9.3pp)

Drawmodel 24% · market 21% (model vs market +2.5pp)

CF Montrealmodel 26% · market 19% (model vs market +6.8pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:12 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 12 books quote this market · margin removed 9.3%

Columbus Crew SC
1.62 at Betsson +1
collected 11:12 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6759.8% implieddifference −1.9pp
Draw
4.40 at Coolbet +1
collected 11:12 UTC
no-vig reference 4.7321.1% implieddifference −1.6pp
CF Montreal
5.30 at FanDuel
collected 11:12 UTC
no-vig reference 5.2519.1% implieddifference +0.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Columbus Crew SC	1.62Betsson +1	11:12 UTC	1.6759.8% implied	−1.9pp
Draw	4.40Coolbet +1	11:12 UTC	4.7321.1% implied	−1.6pp
CF Montreal	5.30FanDuel	11:12 UTC	5.2519.1% implied	+0.2pp

Draw drifted from 3.90 to 4.33 (+11.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Columbus Crew SCDrawCF Montreal

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 10–12 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 12 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Columbus Crew SC	Draw	CF Montreal	Collected
888sport	1.53	4.33	4.80	11:12 UTC
Betclic	1.46	3.93	4.55	11:12 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 1.62	4.25	4.95	11:12 UTC
Coolbet	1.58	Best price: 4.40	5.25	11:12 UTC
FanDuel	1.50	4.40	Best price: 5.30	11:12 UTC
LeoVegas	1.53	4.10	4.75	11:12 UTC
Marathonbet	1.56	4.25	5.10	11:12 UTC
NordicBet	1.62	4.25	4.95	11:12 UTC
Paddy Power	1.53	4.33	5.00	11:12 UTC
Sky Bet	1.50	4.00	4.75	11:12 UTC
William Hill	1.53	4.33	4.80	11:12 UTC
Winamax	1.49	4.10	4.50	11:12 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

11:12 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%

Over 2.5
1.52 at Betsson +1
collected 11:12 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6162.0% implieddifference −3.8pp
Under 2.5
2.48 at Betsson +1
collected 11:12 UTC
no-vig reference 2.6338.0% implieddifference −2.3pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.52Betsson +1	11:12 UTC	1.6162.0% implied	−3.8pp
Under 2.5	2.48Betsson +1	11:12 UTC	2.6338.0% implied	−2.3pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.50 to 1.50 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–3 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	Best price: 1.52	Best price: 2.48	11:12 UTC
NordicBet	1.52	2.48	11:12 UTC
William Hill	1.50	2.45	11:12 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Columbus Crew SC 18d, CF Montreal 18d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Columbus Crew SC.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

CF Montreal

Match result+1.9pp differencecombined

5.30 at FanDuel

combined fair 4.8212 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 21%model 26% · market 19% (model vs market +6.8pp)

estimate 21% · price implies 19% · +10.0% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts CF Montreal at 21%; best collected price 5.30 at fanduel implies 19% — a +1.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Columbus Crew SC vs CF Montreal?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Columbus Crew SC the most likely outcome at 57%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 43%.

How does Clauseground predict Columbus Crew SC vs CF Montreal?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.