Major League Soccer

LA Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes— market analysis & odds

Thu 20 Aug, 02:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
San Jose Earthquakes
41% means we estimate about 41 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: LA Galaxy 36% · Draw 23% · San Jose Earthquakes 41%
2 · Understand the price
San Jose Earthquakes
2.54 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +154
collected 11:12 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.54 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 41%; the price implies 39%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 11:30 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

LA Galaxymodel 24% · market 40% (model vs market −15.8pp)

Drawmodel 23% · market 23% (model vs market −0.1pp)

San Jose Earthquakesmodel 53% · market 37% (model vs market +15.9pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:12 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 11 books quote this market · margin removed 9.9%

LA Galaxy
2.50 at Coolbet
collected 11:12 UTC
no-vig reference 2.5339.5% implieddifference −0.5pp
Draw
4.00 at Coolbet
collected 11:12 UTC
no-vig reference 4.2923.3% implieddifference −1.7pp
San Jose Earthquakes
2.54 at Marathonbet
collected 11:12 UTC
no-vig reference 2.6937.1% implieddifference −2.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
LA Galaxy	2.50Coolbet	11:12 UTC	2.5339.5% implied	−0.5pp
Draw	4.00Coolbet	11:12 UTC	4.2923.3% implied	−1.7pp
San Jose Earthquakes	2.54Marathonbet	11:12 UTC	2.6937.1% implied	−2.2pp

Draw drifted from 3.50 to 3.90 (+11.4%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

LA GalaxyDrawSan Jose Earthquakes

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 11 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 11 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	LA Galaxy	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes	Collected
888sport	2.30	3.90	2.45	11:12 UTC
Betclic	2.18	3.50	2.40	11:12 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 2.50	Best price: 4.00	2.50	11:12 UTC
FanDuel	2.45	3.90	2.50	11:12 UTC
LeoVegas	2.30	3.70	2.45	11:12 UTC
Marathonbet	2.44	3.72	Best price: 2.54	11:12 UTC
Paddy Power	2.40	3.80	2.45	11:12 UTC
Sky Bet	2.38	3.60	2.38	11:12 UTC
William Hill	2.30	3.90	2.45	11:12 UTC
Winamax	2.25	3.65	2.40	11:12 UTC
Winamax	2.20	3.60	2.35	11:12 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: LA Galaxy 18d, San Jose Earthquakes 18d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for LA Galaxy.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

San Jose Earthquakes

Match result+1.7pp differencecombined

2.54 at Marathonbet

combined fair 2.4311 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 41%model 53% · market 37% (model vs market +15.9pp)

estimate 41% · price implies 39% · +4.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts San Jose Earthquakes at 41%; best collected price 2.54 at marathonbet implies 39% — a +1.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:30 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win LA Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes San Jose Earthquakes the most likely outcome at 41%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 59%.

How does Clauseground predict LA Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.