Major League Soccer

Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs Houston Dynamo— market analysis & odds

Thu 20 Aug, 02:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
65% means we estimate about 65 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Vancouver Whitecaps FC 65% · Draw 19% · Houston Dynamo 15%
2 · Understand the price
Houston Dynamo
6.25 decimal odds
Coolbet · US +525
collected 11:32 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 6.25 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
−0.6 percentage points
Our estimate is 15%; the price implies 16%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
The price implies a higher chance than our estimate

Updated 11:30 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Vancouver Whitecaps FCmodel 71% · market 63% (model vs market +7.3pp)

Drawmodel 18% · market 20% (model vs market −2.3pp)

Houston Dynamomodel 12% · market 17% (model vs market −5.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 11 books quote this market · margin removed 9.4%

Vancouver Whitecaps FC
1.47 at Coolbet
collected 11:32 UTC
no-vig reference 1.5763.5% implieddifference −4.5pp
Draw
4.80 at FanDuel
collected 11:32 UTC
no-vig reference 5.0319.9% implieddifference −1.0pp
Houston Dynamo
6.25 at Coolbet
collected 11:32 UTC
no-vig reference 6.0216.6% implieddifference +0.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Vancouver Whitecaps FC	1.47Coolbet	11:32 UTC	1.5763.5% implied	−4.5pp
Draw	4.80FanDuel	11:32 UTC	5.0319.9% implied	−1.0pp
Houston Dynamo	6.25Coolbet	11:32 UTC	6.0216.6% implied	+0.6pp

Draw drifted from 4.20 to 4.60 (+9.5%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Vancouver Whitecaps FCDrawHouston Dynamo

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 11 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 11 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	Draw	Houston Dynamo	Collected
888sport	1.44	4.60	5.50	11:32 UTC
Betclic	1.38	4.10	5.25	11:32 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 1.47	4.75	Best price: 6.25	11:32 UTC
FanDuel	1.42	Best price: 4.80	5.90	11:32 UTC
LeoVegas	1.44	4.30	5.50	11:32 UTC
Marathonbet	1.46	4.50	6.05	11:32 UTC
Paddy Power	1.44	4.75	5.50	11:32 UTC
Sky Bet	1.40	4.33	5.25	11:32 UTC
William Hill	1.44	4.60	5.50	11:32 UTC
Winamax	1.41	4.30	5.10	11:32 UTC
Winamax	1.39	4.20	5.00	11:32 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Vancouver Whitecaps FC 18d, Houston Dynamo 18d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Vancouver Whitecaps FC.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs Houston Dynamo?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Vancouver Whitecaps FC the most likely outcome at 65%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 35%.

How does Clauseground predict Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs Houston Dynamo?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.