La Liga

Elche CF vs Barcelona— market analysis & odds

Sun 23 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Barcelona
66% means we estimate about 66 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Elche CF 14% · Draw 20% · Barcelona 66%
2 · Understand the price
Elche CF
9.00 decimal odds
Tipico de · US +800
collected 11:22 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 9.00 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+3.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 14%; the price implies 11%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 11:09 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Elche CFmodel 19% · market 12% (model vs market +6.9pp)

Drawmodel 25% · market 19% (model vs market +6.0pp)

Barcelonamodel 56% · market 69% (model vs market −12.8pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 6.9%

Elche CF
9.00 at Tipico
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 8.0112.5% implieddifference +1.4pp
Draw
5.80 at Codere
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 5.3418.7% implieddifference +1.5pp
Barcelona
1.36 at William Hill
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.4568.8% implieddifference −4.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Elche CF	9.00Tipico	11:22 UTC	8.0112.5% implied	+1.4pp
Draw	5.80Codere	11:22 UTC	5.3418.7% implied	+1.5pp
Barcelona	1.36William Hill	11:22 UTC	1.4568.8% implied	−4.7pp

Elche CF held from 7.50 to 7.50 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Elche CFDrawBarcelona

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 14 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Elche CF	Draw	Barcelona	Collected
Betclic	7.25	5.10	1.27	11:22 UTC
Betfred	8.50	5.50	1.33	11:22 UTC
Codere	8.00	Best price: 5.80	1.33	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	8.50	5.50	1.33	11:22 UTC
FanDuel	8.50	5.70	1.29	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	7.50	5.50	1.30	11:22 UTC
Paddy Power	8.50	5.50	1.25	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	8.50	5.50	1.29	11:22 UTC
Tipico	Best price: 9.00	5.20	1.32	11:22 UTC
Unibet	8.00	5.25	1.30	11:22 UTC
Unibet	7.30	5.30	1.26	11:22 UTC
William Hill	7.50	5.00	Best price: 1.36	11:22 UTC
Winamax	7.00	5.70	1.30	11:22 UTC
Winamax	6.25	5.00	1.25	11:22 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

11:22 UTC

3 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

Over 3.5
2.06 at Codere
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3.5
1.70 at Tipico
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3.5	2.06Codere	11:22 UTC	—	—
Under 3.5	1.70Tipico	11:22 UTC	—	—

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Over 3.5Under 3.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–3 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3.5	Under 3.5	Collected
Codere	Best price: 2.06	1.65	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.05	1.67	11:22 UTC
Tipico	2.05	Best price: 1.70	11:22 UTC

Both teams to score

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Both teams score
1.75 at LeoVegas
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8155.3% implieddifference −1.9pp
Not both teams score
2.10 at William Hill
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2444.7% implieddifference −2.9pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.75LeoVegas	11:22 UTC	1.8155.3% implied	−1.9pp
Not both teams score	2.10William Hill	11:22 UTC	2.2444.7% implied	−2.9pp

Both teams score held from 1.70 to 1.70 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	1.73	2.00	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	Best price: 1.75	2.05	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	1.73	2.00	11:22 UTC
William Hill	1.70	Best price: 2.10	11:22 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Elche CF 7d, Barcelona 7d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Elche CF.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Draw

Match result+3.0pp differencecombined

5.80 at Codere

combined fair 4.9514 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 20%model 25% · market 19% (model vs market +6.0pp)

estimate 20% · price implies 17% · +17.2% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 20%; best collected price 5.80 at codere_it implies 17% — a +3.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:09 UTC

Elche CF

Match result+3.1pp differencecombined

9.00 at Tipico

combined fair 7.0514 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 14%model 19% · market 12% (model vs market +6.9pp)

estimate 14% · price implies 11% · +27.7% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Elche CF at 14%; best collected price 9.00 at tipico_de implies 11% — a +3.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:09 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Elche CF vs Barcelona?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Barcelona the most likely outcome at 66%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 34%.

How does Clauseground predict Elche CF vs Barcelona?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.