La Liga

Getafe vs Real Racing Club de Santander— market analysis & odds

Sun 23 Aug, 17:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Getafe
44% means we estimate about 44 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Getafe 44% · Draw 29% · Real Racing Club de Santander 27%
2 · Understand the price
Real Racing Club de Santander
5.10 decimal odds
FanDuel · US +410
collected 11:22 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.10 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+7.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 27%; the price implies 20%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 11:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Getafemodel 40% · market 45% (model vs market −4.5pp)

Drawmodel 29% · market 29% (model vs market +0.4pp)

Real Racing Club de Santandermodel 30% · market 26% (model vs market +4.1pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 8.5%

Getafe
2.00 at Codere
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0149.8% implieddifference −0.2pp
Draw
3.15 at Coolbet
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 3.1531.8% implieddifference +0.0pp
Real Racing Club de Santander
5.10 at FanDuel
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 5.4318.4% implieddifference −1.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Getafe	2.00Codere	11:22 UTC	2.0149.8% implied	−0.2pp
Draw	3.15Coolbet	11:22 UTC	3.1531.8% implied	+0.0pp
Real Racing Club de Santander	5.10FanDuel	11:22 UTC	5.4318.4% implied	−1.2pp

Getafe held from 1.85 to 1.85 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

GetafeDrawReal Racing Club de Santander

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–13 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Getafe	Draw	Real Racing Club de Santander	Collected
Betclic	1.87	2.88	4.20	11:22 UTC
Betfred	1.90	3.10	5.00	11:22 UTC
Codere	Best price: 2.00	3.05	4.50	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	1.88	Best price: 3.15	5.00	11:22 UTC
FanDuel	1.83	3.10	Best price: 5.10	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	1.92	3.00	4.30	11:22 UTC
Paddy Power	1.83	3.00	4.75	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	1.85	3.10	5.00	11:22 UTC
Unibet	1.95	3.00	4.35	11:22 UTC
Unibet	1.85	2.90	4.20	11:22 UTC
William Hill	1.85	2.90	5.00	11:22 UTC
Winamax	1.94	3.05	4.20	11:22 UTC
Winamax	1.84	2.85	3.85	11:22 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 6.7%

Both teams score
2.50 at Betfred +2
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.6737.5% implieddifference −2.5pp
Not both teams score
1.53 at LeoVegas +1
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6062.5% implieddifference −2.9pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	2.50Betfred +2	11:22 UTC	2.6737.5% implied	−2.5pp
Not both teams score	1.53LeoVegas +1	11:22 UTC	1.6062.5% implied	−2.9pp

Both teams score held from 2.50 to 2.50 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 2.50	1.50	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.50	Best price: 1.53	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	2.38	1.53	11:22 UTC
William Hill	2.50	1.50	11:22 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Getafe 7d, Real Racing Club de Santander 7d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Getafe.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Real Racing Club de Santander

Match result+7.7pp differencecombined

5.10 at FanDuel

combined fair 3.6613 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 27%model 30% · market 26% (model vs market +4.1pp)

estimate 27% · price implies 20% · +39.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Real Racing Club de Santander at 27%; best collected price 5.10 at fanduel implies 20% — a +7.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Both teams to score — Yes

Both teams to score+3.3pp differencecombined

2.50 at Betfred

combined fair 2.314 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 43%model 54% · market 38% (model vs market +16.4pp)

estimate 43% · price implies 40% · +8.1% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Both teams to score — Yes at 43%; best collected price 2.50 at betfred_uk implies 40% — a +3.2pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Getafe vs Real Racing Club de Santander?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Getafe the most likely outcome at 44%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 56%.

How does Clauseground predict Getafe vs Real Racing Club de Santander?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.