La Liga

Málaga vs Deportivo La Coruña— market analysis & odds

Mon 24 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Málaga
38% means we estimate about 38 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Málaga 38% · Draw 31% · Deportivo La Coruña 31%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
3.10 decimal odds
Betfred uk · US +210
collected 11:22 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.10 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
−1.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 31%; the price implies 32%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
The price implies a higher chance than our estimate

Updated 11:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Málagamodel 40% · market 37% (model vs market +3.3pp)

Drawmodel 29% · market 32% (model vs market −2.4pp)

Deportivo La Coruñamodel 30% · market 31% (model vs market −0.9pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 11 books quote this market · margin removed 7.6%

Málaga
2.55 at Coolbet
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.6437.9% implieddifference −1.3pp
Draw
3.10 at Betfred +4
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 3.3330.0% implieddifference −2.3pp
Deportivo La Coruña
3.00 at Betfred
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 3.1232.1% implieddifference −1.3pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Málaga	2.55Coolbet	11:22 UTC	2.6437.9% implied	−1.3pp
Draw	3.10Betfred +4	11:22 UTC	3.3330.0% implied	−2.3pp
Deportivo La Coruña	3.00Betfred	11:22 UTC	3.1232.1% implied	−1.3pp

Málaga held from 2.45 to 2.45 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

MálagaDrawDeportivo La Coruña

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 10–11 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 11 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Málaga	Draw	Deportivo La Coruña	Collected
Betclic	2.33	2.90	2.88	11:22 UTC
Betfred	2.50	Best price: 3.10	Best price: 3.00	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 2.55	3.10	2.95	11:22 UTC
FanDuel	2.50	3.10	2.95	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.40	3.00	2.90	11:22 UTC
Paddy Power	2.45	3.00	2.88	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	2.50	3.10	2.90	11:22 UTC
Unibet	2.30	2.95	2.90	11:22 UTC
William Hill	2.45	3.10	2.90	11:22 UTC
Winamax	2.40	3.05	2.90	11:22 UTC
Winamax	2.25	2.85	2.70	11:22 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Both teams score
2.10 at Betfred +2
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2444.7% implieddifference −2.9pp
Not both teams score
1.73 at LeoVegas
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8155.3% implieddifference −2.5pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	2.10Betfred +2	11:22 UTC	2.2444.7% implied	−2.9pp
Not both teams score	1.73LeoVegas	11:22 UTC	1.8155.3% implied	−2.5pp

Both teams score held from 2.10 to 2.10 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 2.10	1.67	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.08	Best price: 1.73	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	2.10	1.67	11:22 UTC
William Hill	2.10	1.70	11:22 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Málaga 7d, Deportivo La Coruña 7d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Málaga.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Málaga vs Deportivo La Coruña?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Málaga the most likely outcome at 38%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 62%.

How does Clauseground predict Málaga vs Deportivo La Coruña?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.