La Liga

CA Osasuna vs Levante— market analysis & odds

Mon 24 Aug, 17:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
CA Osasuna
44% means we estimate about 44 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: CA Osasuna 44% · Draw 30% · Levante 26%
2 · Understand the price
Levante
5.00 decimal odds
Coolbet · US +400
collected 11:22 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.00 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+6.2 percentage points
Our estimate is 26%; the price implies 20%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 11:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

CA Osasunamodel 41% · market 45% (model vs market −4.9pp)

Drawmodel 30% · market 30% (model vs market +0.0pp)

Levantemodel 30% · market 25% (model vs market +4.8pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 7.2%

CA Osasuna
1.75 at Codere
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8254.9% implieddifference −2.3pp
Draw
4.00 at Betfred
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 4.0224.9% implieddifference −0.1pp
Levante
5.00 at Coolbet
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 4.9320.3% implieddifference +0.3pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
CA Osasuna	1.75Codere	11:22 UTC	1.8254.9% implied	−2.3pp
Draw	4.00Betfred	11:22 UTC	4.0224.9% implied	−0.1pp
Levante	5.00Coolbet	11:22 UTC	4.9320.3% implied	+0.3pp

CA Osasuna held from 1.70 to 1.70 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

CA OsasunaDrawLevante

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 14 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	CA Osasuna	Draw	Levante	Collected
Betclic	1.65	3.53	4.35	11:22 UTC
Betfred	1.70	Best price: 4.00	4.60	11:22 UTC
Codere	Best price: 1.75	3.80	4.70	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	1.70	3.85	Best price: 5.00	11:22 UTC
FanDuel	1.67	3.80	4.80	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	1.70	3.70	4.50	11:22 UTC
Paddy Power	1.67	3.75	4.75	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	1.70	3.75	4.75	11:22 UTC
Tipico	1.70	3.80	4.80	11:22 UTC
Unibet	1.70	3.60	4.50	11:22 UTC
Unibet	1.63	3.55	4.40	11:22 UTC
William Hill	1.70	3.75	4.60	11:22 UTC
Winamax	1.70	3.75	4.30	11:22 UTC
Winamax	1.62	3.45	4.00	11:22 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Over 2.5
1.90 at Tipico
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9750.8% implieddifference −1.8pp
Under 2.5
1.93 at Coolbet
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0349.2% implieddifference −2.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.90Tipico	11:22 UTC	1.9750.8% implied	−1.8pp
Under 2.5	1.93Coolbet	11:22 UTC	2.0349.2% implied	−2.6pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.85 to 1.85 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–5 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Codere	1.81	1.86	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	1.85	Best price: 1.93	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	1.80	1.88	11:22 UTC
Tipico	Best price: 1.90	1.85	11:22 UTC
William Hill	1.85	1.91	11:22 UTC

Both teams to score

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 5.9%

Both teams score
1.83 at William Hill
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9451.6% implieddifference −3.1pp
Not both teams score
2.00 at Sky Bet
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0748.4% implieddifference −1.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.83William Hill	11:22 UTC	1.9451.6% implied	−3.1pp
Not both teams score	2.00Sky Bet	11:22 UTC	2.0748.4% implied	−1.6pp

Both teams score held from 1.83 to 1.83 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	1.80	1.91	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	1.80	1.98	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	1.80	Best price: 2.00	11:22 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 1.83	1.95	11:22 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: CA Osasuna 7d, Levante 7d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for CA Osasuna.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Levante

Match result+6.2pp differencecombined

5.00 at Coolbet

combined fair 3.8214 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 26%model 30% · market 25% (model vs market +4.8pp)

estimate 26% · price implies 20% · +31.0% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Levante at 26%; best collected price 5.00 at coolbet implies 20% — a +6.2pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Draw

Match result+4.7pp differencecombined

4.00 at Betfred

combined fair 3.3714 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 30%model 30% · market 30% (model vs market +0.0pp)

estimate 30% · price implies 25% · +18.6% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 30%; best collected price 4.00 at betfred_uk implies 25% — a +4.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win CA Osasuna vs Levante?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes CA Osasuna the most likely outcome at 44%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 56%.

How does Clauseground predict CA Osasuna vs Levante?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.