La Liga

Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal— market analysis & odds

Sun 23 Aug, 15:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Atlético Madrid
50% means we estimate about 50 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Atlético Madrid 50% · Draw 27% · Villarreal 23%
2 · Understand the price
Villarreal
4.50 decimal odds
Williamhill · US +350
collected 11:22 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.50 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.8 percentage points
Our estimate is 23%; the price implies 22%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 11:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Atlético Madridmodel 51% · market 49% (model vs market +2.3pp)

Drawmodel 27% · market 28% (model vs market −0.5pp)

Villarrealmodel 22% · market 23% (model vs market −1.8pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 6.6%

Atlético Madrid
1.92 at Codere
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9750.7% implieddifference −1.4pp
Draw
3.50 at Tipico
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 3.5228.4% implieddifference −0.1pp
Villarreal
4.50 at William Hill
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 4.8020.9% implieddifference −1.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Atlético Madrid	1.92Codere	11:22 UTC	1.9750.7% implied	−1.4pp
Draw	3.50Tipico	11:22 UTC	3.5228.4% implied	−0.1pp
Villarreal	4.50William Hill	11:22 UTC	4.8020.9% implied	−1.4pp

Villarreal drifted from 4.00 to 4.50 (+12.5%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Atlético MadridDrawVillarreal

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 11–13 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Atlético Madrid	Draw	Villarreal	Collected
Betclic	1.80	3.22	3.93	11:22 UTC
Betfred	1.90	3.40	4.20	11:22 UTC
Codere	Best price: 1.92	3.45	4.20	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	1.90	3.40	4.30	11:22 UTC
FanDuel	1.83	3.40	4.30	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	1.88	3.30	4.00	11:22 UTC
Paddy Power	1.83	3.40	4.20	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	1.85	3.40	4.20	11:22 UTC
Tipico	1.85	Best price: 3.50	4.30	11:22 UTC
Unibet	1.88	3.30	4.00	11:22 UTC
William Hill	1.85	3.30	Best price: 4.50	11:22 UTC
Winamax	1.86	3.40	3.95	11:22 UTC
Winamax	1.76	3.15	3.65	11:22 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Over 2.5
2.15 at Coolbet +1
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2943.7% implieddifference −2.8pp
Under 2.5
1.70 at LeoVegas +1
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7856.3% implieddifference −2.5pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	2.15Coolbet +1	11:22 UTC	2.2943.7% implied	−2.8pp
Under 2.5	1.70LeoVegas +1	11:22 UTC	1.7856.3% implied	−2.5pp

Over 2.5 held from 2.15 to 2.15 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–5 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Codere	2.02	1.68	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 2.15	1.68	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.00	Best price: 1.70	11:22 UTC
Tipico	2.10	1.70	11:22 UTC
William Hill	2.15	1.67	11:22 UTC

Both teams to score

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 5.9%

Both teams score
1.95 at William Hill
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0748.4% implieddifference −2.9pp
Not both teams score
1.88 at LeoVegas
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9451.6% implieddifference −1.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.95William Hill	11:22 UTC	2.0748.4% implied	−2.9pp
Not both teams score	1.88LeoVegas	11:22 UTC	1.9451.6% implied	−1.6pp

Both teams score held from 1.95 to 1.95 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	1.91	1.80	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	1.91	Best price: 1.88	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	1.91	1.80	11:22 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 1.95	1.83	11:22 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Atlético Madrid 7d, Villarreal 7d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Atlético Madrid.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Villarreal

Match result+0.8pp differencecombined

4.50 at William Hill

combined fair 4.3513 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 23%model 22% · market 23% (model vs market −1.8pp)

estimate 23% · price implies 22% · +3.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Villarreal at 23%; best collected price 4.50 at williamhill implies 22% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Atlético Madrid the most likely outcome at 50%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 50%.

How does Clauseground predict Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.