La Liga

Espanyol vs Real Madrid— market analysis & odds

Sat 22 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Real Madrid
53% means we estimate about 53 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Espanyol 21% · Draw 26% · Real Madrid 53%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
4.20 decimal odds
Betfred uk · US +320
collected 11:22 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.20 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 26%; the price implies 24%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 11:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Espanyolmodel 17% · market 22% (model vs market −4.8pp)

Drawmodel 25% · market 26% (model vs market −1.6pp)

Real Madridmodel 58% · market 51% (model vs market +6.4pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 7.3%

Espanyol
5.25 at Coolbet
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 4.9320.3% implieddifference +1.2pp
Draw
4.20 at Betfred +2
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 4.1823.9% implieddifference +0.1pp
Real Madrid
1.67 at William Hill
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7955.8% implieddifference −4.1pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Espanyol	5.25Coolbet	11:22 UTC	4.9320.3% implied	+1.2pp
Draw	4.20Betfred +2	11:22 UTC	4.1823.9% implied	+0.1pp
Real Madrid	1.67William Hill	11:22 UTC	1.7955.8% implied	−4.1pp

Espanyol held from 4.60 to 4.60 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

EspanyolDrawReal Madrid

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 14 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Espanyol	Draw	Real Madrid	Collected
Betclic	4.70	3.80	1.55	11:22 UTC
Betfred	5.00	Best price: 4.20	1.62	11:22 UTC
Codere	5.00	4.10	1.64	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 5.25	4.20	1.62	11:22 UTC
FanDuel	5.10	4.20	1.59	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	4.80	4.00	1.60	11:22 UTC
Paddy Power	4.75	4.00	1.57	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	5.00	4.00	1.60	11:22 UTC
Tipico	5.20	4.00	1.62	11:22 UTC
Unibet	5.00	3.90	1.60	11:22 UTC
Unibet	4.75	3.85	1.54	11:22 UTC
William Hill	4.60	3.90	Best price: 1.67	11:22 UTC
Winamax	4.70	4.10	1.60	11:22 UTC
Winamax	4.30	3.75	1.52	11:22 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Over 2.5
1.70 at Coolbet +2
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8155.3% implieddifference −3.6pp
Under 2.5
2.12 at Coolbet
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2444.7% implieddifference −2.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.70Coolbet +2	11:22 UTC	1.8155.3% implied	−3.6pp
Under 2.5	2.12Coolbet	11:22 UTC	2.2444.7% implied	−2.4pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.70 to 1.70 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–5 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Codere	1.65	2.06	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 1.70	Best price: 2.12	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	1.65	2.08	11:22 UTC
Tipico	1.70	2.10	11:22 UTC
William Hill	1.70	2.10	11:22 UTC

Both teams to score

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 6.6%

Both teams score
1.73 at Betfred +3
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8454.2% implieddifference −3.6pp
Not both teams score
2.10 at LeoVegas
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1845.8% implieddifference −1.9pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.73Betfred +3	11:22 UTC	1.8454.2% implied	−3.6pp
Not both teams score	2.10LeoVegas	11:22 UTC	2.1845.8% implied	−1.9pp

Both teams score held from 1.73 to 1.73 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.73	2.00	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	1.73	Best price: 2.10	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	1.73	2.00	11:22 UTC
William Hill	1.73	2.05	11:22 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Espanyol 7d, Real Madrid 7d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Espanyol.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Draw

Match result+2.1pp differencecombined

4.20 at Betfred

combined fair 3.8514 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 26%model 25% · market 26% (model vs market −1.6pp)

estimate 26% · price implies 24% · +9.0% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 26%; best collected price 4.20 at betfred_uk implies 24% — a +2.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Espanyol

Match result+1.9pp differencecombined

5.25 at Coolbet

combined fair 4.7614 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 21%model 17% · market 22% (model vs market −4.8pp)

estimate 21% · price implies 19% · +10.2% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Espanyol at 21%; best collected price 5.25 at coolbet implies 19% — a +2.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Espanyol vs Real Madrid?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Real Madrid the most likely outcome at 53%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 47%.

How does Clauseground predict Espanyol vs Real Madrid?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.