La Liga

Valencia vs Celta Vigo— market analysis & odds

Sat 22 Aug, 17:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Valencia
39% means we estimate about 39 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Valencia 39% · Draw 30% · Celta Vigo 31%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
3.30 decimal odds
Williamhill · US +230
collected 11:22 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.30 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
−0.3 percentage points
Our estimate is 30%; the price implies 30%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
The price implies a higher chance than our estimate

Updated 11:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Valenciamodel 39% · market 39% (model vs market −0.2pp)

Drawmodel 30% · market 30% (model vs market +0.1pp)

Celta Vigomodel 31% · market 31% (model vs market +0.1pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 7.1%

Valencia
2.41 at Codere
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.4640.6% implieddifference −0.9pp
Draw
3.30 at William Hill
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 3.5328.3% implieddifference −2.0pp
Celta Vigo
3.10 at Betfred +3
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 3.2131.1% implieddifference −1.1pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Valencia	2.41Codere	11:22 UTC	2.4640.6% implied	−0.9pp
Draw	3.30William Hill	11:22 UTC	3.5328.3% implied	−2.0pp
Celta Vigo	3.10Betfred +3	11:22 UTC	3.2131.1% implied	−1.1pp

Valencia held from 2.30 to 2.30 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

ValenciaDrawCelta Vigo

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 14 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Valencia	Draw	Celta Vigo	Collected
Betclic	2.23	3.03	2.92	11:22 UTC
Betfred	2.38	3.25	Best price: 3.10	11:22 UTC
Codere	Best price: 2.41	3.20	3.10	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	2.40	3.25	3.10	11:22 UTC
FanDuel	2.35	3.20	3.00	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.30	3.15	2.95	11:22 UTC
Paddy Power	2.30	3.10	3.00	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	2.38	3.10	3.00	11:22 UTC
Tipico	2.35	3.20	3.10	11:22 UTC
Unibet	2.35	3.10	3.00	11:22 UTC
Unibet	2.20	3.05	2.95	11:22 UTC
William Hill	2.30	Best price: 3.30	3.00	11:22 UTC
Winamax	2.30	3.20	2.95	11:22 UTC
Winamax	2.15	3.00	2.75	11:22 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Over 2.5
2.20 at Tipico
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2943.7% implieddifference −1.7pp
Under 2.5
1.67 at William Hill
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7856.3% implieddifference −3.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	2.20Tipico	11:22 UTC	2.2943.7% implied	−1.7pp
Under 2.5	1.67William Hill	11:22 UTC	1.7856.3% implied	−3.6pp

Over 2.5 held from 2.15 to 2.15 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Codere	2.15	1.60	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.12	1.62	11:22 UTC
Tipico	Best price: 2.20	1.65	11:22 UTC
William Hill	2.15	Best price: 1.67	11:22 UTC

Both teams to score

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Both teams score
1.91 at LeoVegas +1
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0349.2% implieddifference −3.2pp
Not both teams score
1.91 at Sky Bet
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9750.8% implieddifference −1.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.91LeoVegas +1	11:22 UTC	2.0349.2% implied	−3.2pp
Not both teams score	1.91Sky Bet	11:22 UTC	1.9750.8% implied	−1.6pp

Both teams score held from 1.91 to 1.91 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	1.83	1.83	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	Best price: 1.91	1.85	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	1.80	Best price: 1.91	11:22 UTC
William Hill	1.91	1.85	11:22 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Valencia 7d, Celta Vigo 7d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Valencia.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Valencia vs Celta Vigo?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Valencia the most likely outcome at 39%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 61%.

How does Clauseground predict Valencia vs Celta Vigo?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.