La Liga

Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla— market analysis & odds

Sat 22 Aug, 15:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Athletic Bilbao
50% means we estimate about 50 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Athletic Bilbao 50% · Draw 29% · Sevilla 22%
2 · Understand the price
Sevilla
6.00 decimal odds
Betfred uk · US +500
collected 11:22 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 6.00 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+4.8 percentage points
Our estimate is 22%; the price implies 17%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 11:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Athletic Bilbaomodel 50% · market 50% (model vs market −0.1pp)

Drawmodel 28% · market 29% (model vs market −0.8pp)

Sevillamodel 22% · market 21% (model vs market +0.9pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 7.7%

Athletic Bilbao
1.64 at Codere
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7457.3% implieddifference −3.7pp
Draw
3.90 at Tipico
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 3.8825.8% implieddifference +0.2pp
Sevilla
6.00 at Betfred +5
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 5.9216.9% implieddifference +0.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Athletic Bilbao	1.64Codere	11:22 UTC	1.7457.3% implied	−3.7pp
Draw	3.90Tipico	11:22 UTC	3.8825.8% implied	+0.2pp
Sevilla	6.00Betfred +5	11:22 UTC	5.9216.9% implied	+0.2pp

Athletic Bilbao held from 1.62 to 1.62 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Athletic BilbaoDrawSevilla

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 14 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Sevilla	Collected
Betclic	1.55	3.55	5.25	11:22 UTC
Betfred	1.60	3.75	Best price: 6.00	11:22 UTC
Codere	Best price: 1.64	3.85	5.60	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	1.60	3.85	6.00	11:22 UTC
FanDuel	1.53	3.80	6.00	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	1.60	3.70	5.20	11:22 UTC
Paddy Power	1.57	3.75	6.00	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	1.57	3.75	6.00	11:22 UTC
Tipico	1.57	Best price: 3.90	6.00	11:22 UTC
Unibet	1.60	3.70	5.50	11:22 UTC
Unibet	1.54	3.60	5.20	11:22 UTC
William Hill	1.62	3.60	5.50	11:22 UTC
Winamax	1.58	3.80	5.10	11:22 UTC
Winamax	1.52	3.50	4.70	11:22 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Over 2.5
2.15 at Coolbet +1
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2444.7% implieddifference −1.8pp
Under 2.5
1.70 at William Hill
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8155.3% implieddifference −3.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	2.15Coolbet +1	11:22 UTC	2.2444.7% implied	−1.8pp
Under 2.5	1.70William Hill	11:22 UTC	1.8155.3% implied	−3.6pp

Over 2.5 held from 2.10 to 2.10 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–5 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Codere	2.08	1.64	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 2.15	1.68	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.05	1.65	11:22 UTC
Tipico	2.15	1.67	11:22 UTC
William Hill	2.10	Best price: 1.70	11:22 UTC

Both teams to score

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 6.6%

Both teams score
2.20 at Sky Bet
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1845.8% implieddifference +0.3pp
Not both teams score
1.73 at William Hill
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8454.2% implieddifference −3.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	2.20Sky Bet	11:22 UTC	2.1845.8% implied	+0.3pp
Not both teams score	1.73William Hill	11:22 UTC	1.8454.2% implied	−3.6pp

Both teams score held from 2.05 to 2.05 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	2.10	1.67	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.15	1.67	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	Best price: 2.20	1.62	11:22 UTC
William Hill	2.05	Best price: 1.73	11:22 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Athletic Bilbao 7d, Sevilla 7d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Athletic Bilbao.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Sevilla

Match result+4.8pp differencecombined

6.00 at Betfred

combined fair 4.6514 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 22%model 22% · market 21% (model vs market +0.9pp)

estimate 22% · price implies 17% · +29.0% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Sevilla at 22%; best collected price 6.00 at betfred_uk implies 17% — a +4.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Both teams to score — Yes

Both teams to score+2.6pp differencecombined

2.20 at Sky Bet

combined fair 2.084 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 48%model 52% · market 46% (model vs market +6.6pp)

estimate 48% · price implies 45% · +5.8% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Both teams to score — Yes at 48%; best collected price 2.20 at skybet implies 45% — a +2.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Athletic Bilbao the most likely outcome at 50%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 50%.

How does Clauseground predict Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.