La Liga

Real Betis vs Real Sociedad— market analysis & odds

Fri 21 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Real Betis
41% means we estimate about 41 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Real Betis 41% · Draw 28% · Real Sociedad 32%
2 · Understand the price
Real Sociedad
3.60 decimal odds
Tipico de · US +260
collected 11:22 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.60 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+4.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 32%; the price implies 28%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 11:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Real Betismodel 40% · market 41% (model vs market −1.2pp)

Drawmodel 29% · market 27% (model vs market +1.7pp)

Real Sociedadmodel 31% · market 32% (model vs market −0.5pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 6.5%

Real Betis
2.24 at Codere
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2444.7% implieddifference +0.1pp
Draw
3.40 at Betfred +2
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 3.5128.5% implieddifference −1.0pp
Real Sociedad
3.60 at Tipico
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 3.7326.8% implieddifference −0.9pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Real Betis	2.24Codere	11:22 UTC	2.2444.7% implied	+0.1pp
Draw	3.40Betfred +2	11:22 UTC	3.5128.5% implied	−1.0pp
Real Sociedad	3.60Tipico	11:22 UTC	3.7326.8% implied	−0.9pp

Real Betis held from 2.10 to 2.10 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Real BetisDrawReal Sociedad

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 14 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Real Betis	Draw	Real Sociedad	Collected
Betclic	2.08	3.08	3.17	11:22 UTC
Betfair Sportsbook	2.05	3.30	3.40	11:22 UTC
Betfred	2.15	Best price: 3.40	3.40	11:22 UTC
Codere	Best price: 2.24	3.25	3.35	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	2.15	3.40	3.40	11:22 UTC
FanDuel	2.10	3.40	3.40	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.15	3.20	3.20	11:22 UTC
Paddy Power	2.05	3.30	3.40	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	2.05	3.30	3.40	11:22 UTC
Tipico	2.10	3.30	Best price: 3.60	11:22 UTC
Unibet	2.20	3.20	3.25	11:22 UTC
Unibet	2.05	3.10	3.20	11:22 UTC
William Hill	2.10	3.30	3.50	11:22 UTC
Winamax	2.05	3.00	2.95	11:22 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%

Over 2.5
2.15 at Coolbet +1
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2644.3% implieddifference −2.2pp
Under 2.5
1.68 at Coolbet
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8055.7% implieddifference −3.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	2.15Coolbet +1	11:22 UTC	2.2644.3% implied	−2.2pp
Under 2.5	1.68Coolbet	11:22 UTC	1.8055.7% implied	−3.8pp

Over 2.5 held from 2.10 to 2.10 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–5 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Codere	2.08	1.64	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 2.15	Best price: 1.68	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.05	1.65	11:22 UTC
Tipico	2.15	1.67	11:22 UTC
William Hill	2.10	1.67	11:22 UTC

Both teams to score

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 8.1%

Both teams score
1.91 at Sky Bet
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0050.0% implieddifference −2.4pp
Not both teams score
1.88 at LeoVegas
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0050.0% implieddifference −3.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.91Sky Bet	11:22 UTC	2.0050.0% implied	−2.4pp
Not both teams score	1.88LeoVegas	11:22 UTC	2.0050.0% implied	−3.2pp

Both teams score held from 1.85 to 1.85 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	1.83	1.83	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	1.88	Best price: 1.88	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	Best price: 1.91	1.80	11:22 UTC
William Hill	1.85	1.85	11:22 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Real Betis 7d, Real Sociedad 7d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Real Betis.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Real Sociedad

Match result+4.1pp differencecombined

3.60 at Tipico

combined fair 3.1414 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 32%model 31% · market 32% (model vs market −0.5pp)

estimate 32% · price implies 28% · +14.7% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Real Sociedad at 32%; best collected price 3.60 at tipico_de implies 28% — a +4.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Real Betis vs Real Sociedad?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Real Betis the most likely outcome at 41%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 59%.

How does Clauseground predict Real Betis vs Real Sociedad?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.