La Liga

Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés— market analysis & odds

Thu 20 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Rayo Vallecano
42% means we estimate about 42 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Rayo Vallecano 42% · Draw 30% · Alavés 29%
2 · Understand the price
Alavés
4.20 decimal odds
Betfred uk · US +320
collected 11:22 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.20 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+5.0 percentage points
Our estimate is 29%; the price implies 24%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 11:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Rayo Vallecanomodel 40% · market 42% (model vs market −1.7pp)

Drawmodel 30% · market 30% (model vs market +0.0pp)

Alavésmodel 30% · market 28% (model vs market +1.6pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 15 books quote this market · margin removed 8.3%

Rayo Vallecano
2.17 at Codere
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1746.2% implieddifference +0.1pp
Draw
3.20 at Betfred
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 3.2530.8% implieddifference −0.5pp
Alavés
4.20 at Betfred +2
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 4.3323.1% implieddifference −0.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Rayo Vallecano	2.17Codere	11:22 UTC	2.1746.2% implied	+0.1pp
Draw	3.20Betfred	11:22 UTC	3.2530.8% implied	−0.5pp
Alavés	4.20Betfred +2	11:22 UTC	4.3323.1% implied	−0.7pp

Rayo Vallecano held from 2.00 to 2.00 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Rayo VallecanoDrawAlavés

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 13–15 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 15 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Rayo Vallecano	Draw	Alavés	Collected
Betclic	2.02	2.87	3.60	11:22 UTC
Betfair Sportsbook	1.95	3.00	4.10	11:22 UTC
Betfred	2.00	Best price: 3.20	Best price: 4.20	11:22 UTC
Codere	Best price: 2.17	3.05	3.85	11:22 UTC
Coolbet	2.02	3.15	4.20	11:22 UTC
FanDuel	2.00	3.10	4.20	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.08	2.90	3.70	11:22 UTC
Paddy Power	1.95	3.00	4.00	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	2.00	3.10	4.00	11:22 UTC
Tipico	2.05	3.10	4.00	11:22 UTC
Unibet	2.10	2.90	3.75	11:22 UTC
Unibet	2.00	2.90	3.65	11:22 UTC
William Hill	2.00	3.00	4.00	11:22 UTC
Winamax	2.05	3.00	3.60	11:22 UTC
Winamax	1.98	2.80	3.35	11:22 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 1.5

11:22 UTC

3 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

Over 1.5
1.55 at Tipico
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 1.5
2.35 at LeoVegas +1
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 1.5	1.55Tipico	11:22 UTC	—	—
Under 1.5	2.35LeoVegas +1	11:22 UTC	—	—

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Over 1.5Under 1.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–3 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 1.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 1.5	Under 1.5	Collected
Codere	1.51	2.34	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	1.50	Best price: 2.35	11:22 UTC
Tipico	Best price: 1.55	2.35	11:22 UTC

Both teams to score

11:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 7.2%

Both teams score
2.20 at Betfred +3
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.3642.4% implieddifference −3.0pp
Not both teams score
1.65 at LeoVegas
collected 11:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7457.6% implieddifference −3.0pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	2.20Betfred +3	11:22 UTC	2.3642.4% implied	−3.0pp
Not both teams score	1.65LeoVegas	11:22 UTC	1.7457.6% implied	−3.0pp

Both teams score held from 2.20 to 2.20 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 2.20	1.62	11:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.20	Best price: 1.65	11:22 UTC
Sky Bet	2.20	1.62	11:22 UTC
William Hill	2.20	1.62	11:22 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Rayo Vallecano 7d, Alavés 7d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Rayo Vallecano.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Alavés

Match result+5.0pp differencecombined

4.20 at Betfred

combined fair 3.4715 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 29%model 30% · market 28% (model vs market +1.6pp)

estimate 29% · price implies 24% · +21.2% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Alavés at 29%; best collected price 4.20 at betfred_uk implies 24% — a +5.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Both teams to score — Yes

Both teams to score+0.8pp differencecombined

2.20 at Betfred

combined fair 2.164 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 46%model 53% · market 42% (model vs market +11.0pp)

estimate 46% · price implies 45% · +1.8% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Both teams to score — Yes at 46%; best collected price 2.20 at betfred_uk implies 45% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Rayo Vallecano the most likely outcome at 42%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 58%.

How does Clauseground predict Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.