Parma vs Torino — market analysis & odds

Mon 19 Oct, 18:45 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Torino
37% means we estimate about 37 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Parma 33% · Draw 30% · Torino 37%
2 · Understand the price
Parma
3.18 decimal odds
Pinnacle · US +218
collected 09:24 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.18 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.5 percentage points
Our estimate is 33%; the price implies 31%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 05:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Parmamodel 42% · market 30% (model vs market +11.8pp)

Drawmodel 28% · market 31% (model vs market −3.3pp)

Torinomodel 31% · market 39% (model vs market −8.5pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

09:24 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 21 books quote this market · margin removed 5.0%

Parma
3.18 at Pinnacle
collected 09:24 UTC
no-vig reference 3.3429.9% implieddifference −1.5pp
Draw
3.20 at Betfred +3
collected 09:24 UTC
no-vig reference 3.2231.0% implieddifference −0.2pp
Torino
2.55 at FanDuel
collected 09:24 UTC
no-vig reference 2.5639.0% implieddifference −0.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Parma	3.18Pinnacle	09:24 UTC	3.3429.9% implied	−1.5pp
Draw	3.20Betfred +3	09:24 UTC	3.2231.0% implied	−0.2pp
Torino	2.55FanDuel	09:24 UTC	2.5639.0% implied	−0.2pp

Parma held from 3.18 to 3.18 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

ParmaDrawTorino

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 20–21 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 21 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Parma	Draw	Torino	Collected
888sport	3.00	3.00	2.40	09:24 UTC
Betclic	2.87	3.00	2.30	09:24 UTC
Betfred	2.88	Best price: 3.20	2.50	09:24 UTC
Betsson	2.98	3.20	2.48	09:24 UTC
Betway	3.00	3.00	2.30	09:24 UTC
Bovada	3.00	3.05	2.45	09:24 UTC
BoyleSports	3.00	3.00	2.30	09:24 UTC
DraftKings	2.95	2.95	2.35	09:24 UTC
FanDuel	2.80	3.20	Best price: 2.55	09:24 UTC
LeoVegas	2.90	3.05	2.40	09:24 UTC
Marathonbet	3.16	3.12	2.44	09:24 UTC
NordicBet	2.95	3.20	2.45	09:24 UTC
Paddy Power	2.75	3.10	2.50	09:24 UTC
Pinnacle	Best price: 3.18	3.07	2.44	09:24 UTC
Sky Bet	2.80	3.10	2.50	09:24 UTC
Tipico	3.10	3.10	2.40	09:24 UTC
Unibet	2.90	3.00	2.15	09:24 UTC
Unibet	2.90	3.10	2.40	09:24 UTC
William Hill	3.00	3.00	2.40	09:24 UTC
Winamax	2.85	3.15	2.35	09:24 UTC
Winamax	2.70	2.95	2.20	09:24 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

09:24 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 7.2%

Over 2.5
2.30 at Bovada
collected 09:24 UTC
no-vig reference 2.3642.4% implieddifference −1.1pp
Under 2.5
1.65 at Betsson
collected 09:24 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7457.6% implieddifference −3.0pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	2.30Bovada	09:24 UTC	2.3642.4% implied	−1.1pp
Under 2.5	1.65Betsson	09:24 UTC	1.7457.6% implied	−3.0pp

Over 2.5 held from 2.20 to 2.20 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	2.26	Best price: 1.65	09:24 UTC
Bovada	Best price: 2.30	1.64	09:24 UTC
LeoVegas	2.15	1.60	09:24 UTC
NordicBet	2.22	1.62	09:24 UTC
Tipico	2.25	1.60	09:24 UTC
William Hill	2.20	1.62	09:24 UTC

Both teams to score

09:24 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Both teams score
1.91 at Betfred +1
collected 09:24 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0349.2% implieddifference −3.2pp
Not both teams score
1.91 at Paddy Power
collected 09:24 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9750.8% implieddifference −1.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.91Betfred +1	09:24 UTC	2.0349.2% implied	−3.2pp
Not both teams score	1.91Paddy Power	09:24 UTC	1.9750.8% implied	−1.6pp

Both teams score held from 1.91 to 1.91 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.91	1.80	09:24 UTC
LeoVegas	1.88	1.83	09:24 UTC
Paddy Power	1.80	Best price: 1.91	09:24 UTC
William Hill	1.91	1.85	09:24 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Parma 29d, Torino 30d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Parma.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Parma

Match result+1.4pp differencecombined

3.18 at Pinnacle

combined fair 3.0419 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 33%model 42% · market 30% (model vs market +11.8pp)

estimate 33% · price implies 31% · +4.6% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Parma at 33%; best collected price 3.18 at pinnacle implies 31% — a +1.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 05:29 UTC

Over 2.5

Totals+1.1pp differencecombined

2.26 at Betsson

combined fair 2.215 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 45%model 54% · market 42% (model vs market +11.6pp)

estimate 45% · price implies 44% · +2.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Over 2.5 at 45%; best collected price 2.26 at betsson implies 44% — a +1.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 05:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Parma vs Torino?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Torino the most likely outcome at 37%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 63%.

How does Clauseground predict Parma vs Torino?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.