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Serie A

AC Milan vs Atalanta BC — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    AC Milan

    48% means we estimate about 48 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: AC Milan 48% · Draw 26% · Atalanta BC 26%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Atalanta BC

    4.35 decimal odds

    Unibet nl · US +335

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.35 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +2.6 percentage points

    Our estimate is 26%; the price implies 23%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

AC Milanmodel 41% · market 51% (model vs market −10.3pp)
Drawmodel 25% · market 26% (model vs market −1.0pp)
Atalanta BCmodel 34% · market 23% (model vs market +11.3pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 29 books quote this market · margin removed 5.2%

  • AC Milan

    1.90 at Betsson +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9750.9% implieddifference −1.8pp

  • Draw

    3.75 at Betfred

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.8026.3% implieddifference −0.3pp

  • Atalanta BC

    4.35 at Unibet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.3922.8% implieddifference −0.2pp

AC Milan held from 1.87 to 1.87 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.613.124.6425 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
AC MilanDrawAtalanta BC
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 28–29 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 29 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookAC MilanDrawAtalanta BCCollected
888sport1.853.403.90
Betclic1.813.383.68
Betfred1.83Best price: 3.754.00
BetRivers1.813.604.10
BetssonBest price: 1.903.653.95
Betway1.853.503.80
Bovada1.833.554.10
BoyleSports1.803.503.80
DraftKings1.833.353.85
FanDuel1.773.604.30
Grosvenor1.833.654.25
LeoVegas1.883.503.70
LeoVegas1.793.504.10
LiveScore Bet1.773.454.00
Marathonbet1.893.684.10
NordicBet1.903.603.95
Paddy Power1.753.604.20
Pinnacle1.873.614.17
PMU1.803.554.10
Sky Bet1.803.604.20
Tipico1.833.704.10
Unibet1.883.503.80
Unibet1.853.70Best price: 4.35
Unibet1.853.704.35
Unibet1.733.403.70
Virgin Bet1.773.454.00
William Hill1.853.403.90
Winamax1.863.603.70
Winamax1.783.303.40

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 4.1%

  • Over 2.5

    1.85 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9251.9% implieddifference −2.1pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.00 at Betsson +4

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0848.1% implieddifference −1.9pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.85 to 1.85 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.831.922.0225 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 13 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetRivers1.811.95
Betsson1.83Best price: 2.00
Bovada1.832.00
Grosvenor1.811.95
LeoVegas1.821.96
LeoVegas1.751.95
NordicBet1.821.98
PinnacleBest price: 1.852.00
PMU1.711.85
Tipico1.772.00
Unibet1.821.96
Unibet1.811.95
William Hill1.752.00

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 6.6%

  • Both teams score

    1.73 at Betfred +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.8454.2% implieddifference −3.6pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.20 at Paddy Power

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.1845.8% implieddifference +0.3pp

Both teams score held from 1.73 to 1.73 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.671.972.2625 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.732.00
LeoVegas1.672.08
LiveScore Bet1.702.04
Paddy Power1.60Best price: 2.20
Virgin Bet1.702.04
William Hill1.732.05

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: AC Milan 28d, Atalanta BC 28d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for AC Milan.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Over 2.5

Totals+1.8pp differencecombined

1.87 at Bovada

combined fair 1.8113 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 55%model 65% · market 52% (model vs market +13.4pp)

estimate 55% · price implies 53% · +3.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Over 2.5 at 55%; best collected price 1.87 at bovada implies 53% — a +1.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Atalanta BC

Match result+2.6pp differencecombined

4.35 at Unibet

combined fair 3.9029 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 26%model 34% · market 23% (model vs market +11.3pp)

estimate 26% · price implies 23% · +11.5% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Atalanta BC at 26%; best collected price 4.35 at unibet_nl implies 23% — a +2.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win AC Milan vs Atalanta BC?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes AC Milan the most likely outcome at 48%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 52%.

How does Clauseground predict AC Milan vs Atalanta BC?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →