Fiorentina vs Como — market analysis & odds

Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Como
41% means we estimate about 41 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Fiorentina 33% · Draw 26% · Como 41%
2 · Understand the price
Fiorentina
3.80 decimal odds
FanDuel · US +280
collected 22:24 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.80 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+6.6 percentage points
Our estimate is 33%; the price implies 26%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 22:44 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Fiorentinamodel 47% · market 28% (model vs market +18.9pp)

Drawmodel 27% · market 26% (model vs market +1.1pp)

Comomodel 26% · market 46% (model vs market −20.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

22:24 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 29 books quote this market · margin removed 4.9%

Fiorentina
3.80 at FanDuel
collected 22:24 UTC
no-vig reference 3.5528.2% implieddifference +1.9pp
Draw
3.75 at Betfred
collected 22:24 UTC
no-vig reference 3.9125.5% implieddifference −1.1pp
Como
2.08 at Betsson +1
collected 22:24 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1646.3% implieddifference −1.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Fiorentina	3.80FanDuel	22:24 UTC	3.5528.2% implied	+1.9pp
Draw	3.75Betfred	22:24 UTC	3.9125.5% implied	−1.1pp
Como	2.08Betsson +1	22:24 UTC	2.1646.3% implied	−1.8pp

Fiorentina shortened from 3.80 to 3.38 (−11.1%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

FiorentinaDrawComo

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 20–29 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 29 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Fiorentina	Draw	Como	Collected
888sport	3.25	3.60	2.00	22:24 UTC
Betclic	3.18	3.38	1.96	22:24 UTC
Betfred	3.50	Best price: 3.75	2.00	22:24 UTC
BetRivers	3.55	3.55	1.95	22:24 UTC
Betsson	3.35	3.65	Best price: 2.08	22:24 UTC
Betway	3.25	3.60	2.00	22:24 UTC
Bovada	3.45	3.65	1.95	22:24 UTC
BoyleSports	3.10	3.50	1.95	22:24 UTC
DraftKings	3.20	3.50	1.95	22:24 UTC
FanDuel	Best price: 3.80	3.70	1.87	22:24 UTC
Grosvenor	3.60	3.65	1.97	22:24 UTC
LeoVegas	3.50	3.50	1.93	22:24 UTC
LeoVegas	3.20	3.45	2.05	22:24 UTC
LiveScore Bet	3.40	3.45	1.92	22:24 UTC
Marathonbet	3.44	3.70	2.06	22:24 UTC
NordicBet	3.35	3.60	2.08	22:24 UTC
Paddy Power	3.70	3.60	1.87	22:24 UTC
Pinnacle	3.38	3.73	2.06	22:24 UTC
PMU	3.50	3.50	1.94	22:24 UTC
Sky Bet	3.75	3.60	1.91	22:24 UTC
Tipico	3.40	3.60	2.05	22:24 UTC
Unibet	3.70	3.70	2.02	22:24 UTC
Unibet	3.70	3.70	2.02	22:24 UTC
Unibet	3.30	3.50	2.05	22:24 UTC
Unibet	3.20	3.40	1.87	22:24 UTC
Virgin Bet	3.40	3.45	1.92	22:24 UTC
William Hill	3.25	3.60	2.00	22:24 UTC
Winamax	3.20	3.60	2.00	22:24 UTC
Winamax	3.00	3.30	1.92	22:24 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

22:24 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 12 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Over 2.5
1.68 at Betsson +3
collected 22:24 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7856.3% implieddifference −3.2pp
Under 2.5
2.25 at Tipico
collected 22:24 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2943.7% implieddifference −0.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.68Betsson +3	22:24 UTC	1.7856.3% implied	−3.2pp
Under 2.5	2.25Tipico	22:24 UTC	2.2943.7% implied	−0.7pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6–12 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 12 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
BetRivers	1.67	2.16	22:24 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 1.68	2.21	22:24 UTC
Bovada	1.68	2.22	22:24 UTC
Grosvenor	1.67	2.16	22:24 UTC
LeoVegas	1.68	2.17	22:24 UTC
LeoVegas	1.60	2.15	22:24 UTC
NordicBet	1.65	2.18	22:24 UTC
PMU	1.57	2.04	22:24 UTC
Tipico	1.62	Best price: 2.25	22:24 UTC
Unibet	1.68	2.17	22:24 UTC
Unibet	1.67	2.16	22:24 UTC
William Hill	1.67	2.15	22:24 UTC

Both teams to score

22:24 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 7.2%

Both teams score
1.57 at Betfred +2
collected 22:24 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6859.4% implieddifference −4.3pp
Not both teams score
2.35 at LeoVegas
collected 22:24 UTC
no-vig reference 2.4640.6% implieddifference −2.0pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.57Betfred +2	22:24 UTC	1.6859.4% implied	−4.3pp
Not both teams score	2.35LeoVegas	22:24 UTC	2.4640.6% implied	−2.0pp

Both teams score held from 1.57 to 1.57 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–6 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.57	2.25	22:24 UTC
LeoVegas	1.52	Best price: 2.35	22:24 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.56	2.28	22:24 UTC
Paddy Power	1.57	2.25	22:24 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.56	2.28	22:24 UTC
William Hill	1.57	2.30	22:24 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Fiorentina 28d, Como 28d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Fiorentina.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Fiorentina

Match result+6.6pp differencecombined

3.80 at FanDuel

combined fair 3.0429 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 33%model 47% · market 28% (model vs market +18.9pp)

estimate 33% · price implies 26% · +25.1% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Fiorentina at 33%; best collected price 3.80 at fanduel implies 26% — a +6.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 22:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Fiorentina vs Como?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Como the most likely outcome at 41%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 59%.

How does Clauseground predict Fiorentina vs Como?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.