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Serie A

AS Roma vs Genoa — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    AS Roma

    67% means we estimate about 67 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: AS Roma 67% · Draw 19% · Genoa 13%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Genoa

    11.50 decimal odds

    Betsson · US +1050

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 11.50 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +4.8 percentage points

    Our estimate is 13%; the price implies 9%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

AS Romamodel 51% · market 73% (model vs market −21.3pp)
Drawmodel 26% · market 17% (model vs market +9.1pp)
Genoamodel 23% · market 10% (model vs market +12.2pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 29 books quote this market · margin removed 5.9%

  • AS Roma

    1.32 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.3872.6% implieddifference −3.1pp

  • Draw

    6.00 at Tipico +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 5.9016.9% implieddifference +0.3pp

  • Genoa

    11.50 at Betsson +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 9.5910.4% implieddifference +1.7pp

Draw shortened from 5.76 to 5.57 (−3.3%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

0.036.6613.2825 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
AS RomaDrawGenoa
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 28–29 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 29 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookAS RomaDrawGenoaCollected
888sport1.255.009.50
Betclic1.255.108.25
Betfred1.295.5011.00
BetRivers1.275.609.50
BetssonBest price: 1.324.80Best price: 11.50
Betway1.295.508.50
Bovada1.295.409.00
BoyleSports1.295.009.00
DraftKings1.285.008.00
FanDuel1.245.709.50
Grosvenor1.285.8010.00
LeoVegas1.295.209.00
LeoVegas1.265.509.00
LiveScore Bet1.255.309.00
Marathonbet1.295.6510.75
NordicBet1.314.8011.50
Paddy Power1.225.5010.00
Pinnacle1.305.579.05
PMU1.275.509.00
Sky Bet1.255.509.50
Tipico1.27Best price: 6.009.50
Unibet1.306.0010.50
Unibet1.306.0010.50
Unibet1.295.259.00
Unibet1.215.108.50
Virgin Bet1.255.309.00
William Hill1.255.009.50
Winamax1.275.608.00
Winamax1.234.907.25

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 7.2%

  • Over 2.5

    1.63 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6859.4% implieddifference −1.9pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.35 at Tipico

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.4640.6% implieddifference −2.0pp

Under 2.5 shortened from 2.45 to 2.30 (−6.1%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.472.042.6125 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–6 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetssonBest price: 1.632.30
Bovada1.622.34
LeoVegas1.552.25
NordicBet1.622.28
Tipico1.57Best price: 2.35
William Hill1.572.30

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

6 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 3.5

    2.35 at LeoVegas +1

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 3.5

    1.57 at LeoVegas +1

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.472.002.5325 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6–9 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3.5Under 3.5Collected
BetRivers2.331.56
Grosvenor2.331.56
LeoVegasBest price: 2.35Best price: 1.57
PMU2.201.49
Unibet2.351.57
Unibet2.331.56

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 6.8%

  • Both teams score

    2.00 at Betfred

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0848.0% implieddifference −2.0pp

  • Not both teams score

    1.84 at LiveScore Bet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9252.0% implieddifference −2.3pp

Not both teams score shortened from 1.91 to 1.80 (−5.8%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.821.922.0225 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 2.001.73
LeoVegas1.981.75
LiveScore Bet1.87Best price: 1.84
Paddy Power1.911.75
Virgin Bet1.871.84
William Hill1.951.80

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: AS Roma 28d, Genoa 27d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for AS Roma.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Genoa

Match result+4.8pp differencecombined

11.50 at Betsson

combined fair 7.4229 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 13%model 23% · market 10% (model vs market +12.2pp)

estimate 13% · price implies 9% · +55.0% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Genoa at 13%; best collected price 11.50 at betsson implies 9% — a +4.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Both teams to score — Yes

Both teams to score+1.7pp differencecombined

2.00 at Betfred

combined fair 1.936 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 52%model 59% · market 48% (model vs market +10.6pp)

estimate 52% · price implies 50% · +3.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Both teams to score — Yes at 52%; best collected price 2.00 at betfred_uk implies 50% — a +1.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win AS Roma vs Genoa?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes AS Roma the most likely outcome at 67%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 33%.

How does Clauseground predict AS Roma vs Genoa?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →