Bologna vs Inter Milan — market analysis & odds

Sat 17 Oct, 16:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Inter Milan
56% means we estimate about 56 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Bologna 19% · Draw 25% · Inter Milan 56%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
4.40 decimal odds
FanDuel · US +340
collected 05:24 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.40 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.9 percentage points
Our estimate is 25%; the price implies 23%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 05:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Bolognamodel 24% · market 17% (model vs market +6.3pp)

Drawmodel 25% · market 24% (model vs market +0.6pp)

Inter Milanmodel 51% · market 58% (model vs market −6.9pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

05:24 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 21 books quote this market · margin removed 5.6%

Bologna
5.50 at Tipico
collected 05:24 UTC
no-vig reference 5.7317.4% implieddifference −0.7pp
Draw
4.40 at FanDuel
collected 05:24 UTC
no-vig reference 4.0924.5% implieddifference +1.7pp
Inter Milan
1.68 at Betsson +1
collected 05:24 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7258.1% implieddifference −1.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Bologna	5.50Tipico	05:24 UTC	5.7317.4% implied	−0.7pp
Draw	4.40FanDuel	05:24 UTC	4.0924.5% implied	+1.7pp
Inter Milan	1.68Betsson +1	05:24 UTC	1.7258.1% implied	−1.4pp

Bologna held from 5.43 to 5.43 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

BolognaDrawInter Milan

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 19–21 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 21 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Bologna	Draw	Inter Milan	Collected
888sport	4.80	3.75	1.65	05:24 UTC
Betclic	4.65	3.70	1.58	05:24 UTC
Betfred	5.00	4.20	1.62	05:24 UTC
Betsson	4.95	3.90	Best price: 1.68	05:24 UTC
Betway	4.75	3.80	1.61	05:24 UTC
Bovada	5.00	4.00	1.60	05:24 UTC
BoyleSports	4.75	3.75	1.57	05:24 UTC
DraftKings	4.60	3.85	1.61	05:24 UTC
FanDuel	5.30	Best price: 4.40	1.50	05:24 UTC
LeoVegas	4.70	3.90	1.62	05:24 UTC
Marathonbet	5.30	3.98	1.65	05:24 UTC
NordicBet	4.90	3.85	1.68	05:24 UTC
Paddy Power	5.00	4.20	1.50	05:24 UTC
Pinnacle	5.43	3.87	1.63	05:24 UTC
Sky Bet	5.00	4.33	1.55	05:24 UTC
Tipico	Best price: 5.50	3.80	1.62	05:24 UTC
Unibet	4.75	3.80	1.62	05:24 UTC
Unibet	4.70	3.80	1.51	05:24 UTC
William Hill	4.80	3.75	1.65	05:24 UTC
Winamax	4.60	3.95	1.62	05:24 UTC
Winamax	4.20	3.65	1.54	05:24 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

05:24 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Over 2.5
1.68 at Bovada
collected 05:24 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7856.3% implieddifference −3.2pp
Under 2.5
2.25 at Betsson
collected 05:24 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2943.7% implieddifference −0.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.68Bovada	05:24 UTC	1.7856.3% implied	−3.2pp
Under 2.5	2.25Betsson	05:24 UTC	2.2943.7% implied	−0.7pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5–6 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	1.66	Best price: 2.25	05:24 UTC
Bovada	Best price: 1.68	2.22	05:24 UTC
LeoVegas	1.60	2.15	05:24 UTC
NordicBet	1.65	2.22	05:24 UTC
Tipico	1.65	2.20	05:24 UTC
William Hill	1.67	2.15	05:24 UTC

Both teams to score

05:24 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Both teams score
1.67 at Betfred +1
collected 05:24 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7856.3% implieddifference −3.6pp
Not both teams score
2.15 at LeoVegas +1
collected 05:24 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2943.7% implieddifference −2.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.67Betfred +1	05:24 UTC	1.7856.3% implied	−3.6pp
Not both teams score	2.15LeoVegas +1	05:24 UTC	2.2943.7% implied	−2.8pp

Both teams score held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.67	2.10	05:24 UTC
LeoVegas	1.61	Best price: 2.15	05:24 UTC
Paddy Power	1.65	2.10	05:24 UTC
William Hill	1.67	2.15	05:24 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Bologna 28d, Inter Milan 28d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Bologna.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Draw

Match result+1.9pp differencecombined

4.40 at FanDuel

combined fair 4.0621 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 25%model 25% · market 24% (model vs market +0.6pp)

estimate 25% · price implies 23% · +8.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 25%; best collected price 4.40 at fanduel implies 23% — a +1.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 05:29 UTC

Bologna

Match result+0.8pp differencecombined

5.50 at Tipico

combined fair 5.2621 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 19%model 24% · market 17% (model vs market +6.3pp)

estimate 19% · price implies 18% · +4.5% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Bologna at 19%; best collected price 5.50 at tipico_de implies 18% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 05:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Bologna vs Inter Milan?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Inter Milan the most likely outcome at 56%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 44%.

How does Clauseground predict Bologna vs Inter Milan?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.