Venezia vs Napoli — market analysis & odds

Sat 17 Oct, 13:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Napoli
54% means we estimate about 54 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Venezia 22% · Draw 24% · Napoli 54%
2 · Understand the price
Venezia
4.70 decimal odds
FanDuel · US +370
collected 22:24 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.70 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.8 percentage points
Our estimate is 22%; the price implies 21%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 22:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Veneziamodel 24% · market 21% (model vs market +3.1pp)

Drawmodel 25% · market 23% (model vs market +2.0pp)

Napolimodel 50% · market 55% (model vs market −5.1pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

22:24 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 21 books quote this market · margin removed 5.6%

Venezia
4.70 at FanDuel
collected 22:24 UTC
no-vig reference 4.6921.3% implieddifference +0.0pp
Draw
4.06 at Pinnacle
collected 22:24 UTC
no-vig reference 4.2923.3% implieddifference −1.3pp
Napoli
1.75 at Betsson +1
collected 22:04 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8155.4% implieddifference −1.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Venezia	4.70FanDuel	22:24 UTC	4.6921.3% implied	+0.0pp
Draw	4.06Pinnacle	22:24 UTC	4.2923.3% implied	−1.3pp
Napoli	1.75Betsson +1	22:04 UTC	1.8155.4% implied	−1.8pp

Venezia drifted from 4.29 to 4.44 (+3.5%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

VeneziaDrawNapoli

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 18–21 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 21 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Venezia	Draw	Napoli	Collected
888sport	4.20	3.75	1.73	22:24 UTC
Betclic	4.00	3.63	1.68	22:24 UTC
Betfred	4.33	4.00	1.73	22:24 UTC
Betsson	4.50	3.90	Best price: 1.75	22:04 UTC
Betway	4.00	4.00	1.70	22:24 UTC
Bovada	4.30	3.90	1.72	22:24 UTC
BoyleSports	4.20	3.80	1.67	22:24 UTC
DraftKings	4.00	3.75	1.71	22:24 UTC
FanDuel	Best price: 4.70	3.80	1.69	22:24 UTC
LeoVegas	4.10	3.75	1.73	22:24 UTC
Marathonbet	4.60	4.05	1.72	22:24 UTC
NordicBet	4.40	3.85	1.72	22:24 UTC
Paddy Power	4.50	3.75	1.67	22:24 UTC
Pinnacle	4.44	Best price: 4.06	1.71	22:24 UTC
Sky Bet	4.60	3.75	1.70	22:04 UTC
Tipico	4.50	3.90	1.72	22:24 UTC
Unibet	4.20	3.75	1.75	22:24 UTC
Unibet	4.00	3.70	1.61	22:24 UTC
William Hill	4.20	3.75	1.73	22:24 UTC
Winamax	4.00	3.90	1.72	22:24 UTC
Winamax	3.70	3.55	1.64	22:24 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

22:24 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Over 2.5
1.74 at Bovada
collected 22:24 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8155.3% implieddifference −2.2pp
Under 2.5
2.15 at Betsson +1
collected 22:04 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2444.7% implieddifference −1.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.74Bovada	22:24 UTC	1.8155.3% implied	−2.2pp
Under 2.5	2.15Betsson +1	22:04 UTC	2.2444.7% implied	−1.8pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.70 to 1.70 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–6 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	1.72	Best price: 2.15	22:04 UTC
Bovada	Best price: 1.74	2.13	22:24 UTC
LeoVegas	1.67	2.05	22:24 UTC
NordicBet	1.70	2.12	22:24 UTC
Tipico	1.67	2.15	22:24 UTC
William Hill	1.70	2.10	22:24 UTC

Both teams to score

22:24 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 6.6%

Both teams score
1.73 at William Hill
collected 22:24 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8454.2% implieddifference −3.6pp
Not both teams score
2.20 at Paddy Power
collected 22:24 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1845.8% implieddifference +0.3pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.73William Hill	22:24 UTC	1.8454.2% implied	−3.6pp
Not both teams score	2.20Paddy Power	22:24 UTC	2.1845.8% implied	+0.3pp

Both teams score held from 1.73 to 1.73 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	1.67	2.10	22:24 UTC
LeoVegas	1.67	2.10	22:24 UTC
Paddy Power	1.60	Best price: 2.20	22:24 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 1.73	2.05	22:24 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Venezia 28d, Napoli 27d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Venezia.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Venezia

Match result+0.8pp differencecombined

4.70 at FanDuel

combined fair 4.5221 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 22%model 24% · market 21% (model vs market +3.1pp)

estimate 22% · price implies 21% · +3.9% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Venezia at 22%; best collected price 4.70 at fanduel implies 21% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 22:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Venezia vs Napoli?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Napoli the most likely outcome at 54%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 46%.

How does Clauseground predict Venezia vs Napoli?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.