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Ligue 1

Lyon vs Nice — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Lyon

    53% means we estimate about 53 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Lyon 53% · Draw 24% · Nice 23%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Nice

    5.25 decimal odds

    Leovegas se · US +425

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.25 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +3.5 percentage points

    Our estimate is 23%; the price implies 19%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Lyonmodel 40% · market 57% (model vs market −17.1pp)
Drawmodel 27% · market 23% (model vs market +4.0pp)
Nicemodel 32% · market 19% (model vs market +13.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 29 books quote this market · margin removed 5.6%

  • Lyon

    1.68 at Betsson +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7457.4% implieddifference −2.2pp

  • Draw

    4.20 at Betfred +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.2923.3% implieddifference −0.5pp

  • Nice

    5.25 at LeoVegas +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 5.1819.3% implieddifference +0.3pp

Lyon held from 1.65 to 1.65 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.233.465.6821 Sept, 09 UTC23 Sept, 16 UTC
LyonDrawNice
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 14–30 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 29 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookLyonDrawNiceCollected
888sport1.653.804.80
Betclic1.583.954.70
Betfred1.62Best price: 4.205.00
BetRivers1.643.904.90
BetssonBest price: 1.683.854.85
Betway1.614.004.50
Bovada1.644.004.80
BoyleSports1.623.804.50
FanDuel1.594.105.10
Grosvenor1.653.955.00
LeoVegas1.684.10Best price: 5.25
LeoVegas1.604.004.60
LiveScore Bet1.613.754.70
Marathonbet1.664.105.10
NordicBet1.683.854.90
Paddy Power1.604.004.75
Pinnacle1.654.064.90
PMU1.573.704.60
Sky Bet1.624.005.00
Suprabets1.623.894.70
Tipico1.624.204.70
Unibet1.684.105.25
Unibet1.664.005.10
Unibet1.624.004.75
Unibet1.543.704.50
Virgin Bet1.613.754.70
William Hill1.653.804.80
Winamax1.604.004.50
Winamax1.543.754.20

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 12 books quote this market · margin removed 6.2%

  • Over 2.5

    1.75 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7258.1% implieddifference +1.0pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.34 at Bovada

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3941.9% implieddifference −0.9pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.62 to 1.62 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.592.002.4221 Sept, 09 UTC23 Sept, 16 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–13 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 12 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetRivers1.702.12
BetssonBest price: 1.752.10
Bovada1.62Best price: 2.34
Grosvenor1.702.12
LeoVegas1.702.12
LeoVegas1.602.15
NordicBet1.722.08
PMU1.612.00
Tipico1.672.15
Unibet1.722.15
Unibet1.702.12
William Hill1.622.25

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 5.3%

  • Both teams score

    1.70 at LiveScore Bet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7656.8% implieddifference −2.0pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.20 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3243.2% implieddifference −2.3pp

Both teams score held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.611.942.2621 Sept, 09 UTC23 Sept, 16 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–5 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.672.10
LeoVegas1.642.12
LiveScore BetBest price: 1.702.06
Virgin Bet1.702.06
William Hill1.67Best price: 2.20

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Lyon 29d, Nice 28d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Lyon.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Nice

Match result+3.5pp differencecombined

5.25 at LeoVegas

combined fair 4.4330 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 23%model 32% · market 19% (model vs market +13.0pp)

estimate 23% · price implies 19% · +18.5% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Nice at 23%; best collected price 5.25 at leovegas_se implies 19% — a +3.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Draw

Match result+0.5pp differencecombined

4.20 at Betfred

combined fair 4.1130 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 24%model 27% · market 23% (model vs market +4.0pp)

estimate 24% · price implies 24% · +2.2% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 24%; best collected price 4.20 at betfred_uk implies 24% — a +0.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Lyon vs Nice?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Lyon the most likely outcome at 53%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 47%.

How does Clauseground predict Lyon vs Nice?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →