Paris FC vs Rennes — market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Paris FC
41% means we estimate about 41 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Paris FC 41% · Draw 29% · Rennes 30%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
3.70 decimal odds
FanDuel · US +270
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.70 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.2 percentage points
Our estimate is 29%; the price implies 27%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 29 books quote this market · margin removed 5.0%
Paris FC
2.32 at Marathonbet +1
collected
no-vig reference 2.4341.2% implieddifference −1.9pp
Draw
3.70 at FanDuel
collected
no-vig reference 3.3929.5% implieddifference +2.5pp
Rennes
3.25 at Pinnacle
collected
no-vig reference 3.4129.3% implieddifference −1.5pp
Paris FC held from 2.31 to 2.31 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
Every book’s current price — 29 venues collected
| Book | Paris FC | Draw | Rennes | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.75 | |
| Betclic | 2.15 | 3.43 | 2.92 | |
| Betfred | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.88 | |
| BetRivers | 2.20 | 3.35 | 3.05 | |
| Betsson | 2.30 | 3.45 | 2.95 | |
| Betway | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.90 | |
| Bovada | 2.25 | 3.45 | 3.00 | |
| BoyleSports | 2.15 | 3.25 | 2.90 | |
| Casumo | 2.20 | 3.35 | 3.05 | |
| FanDuel | 2.25 | Best price: 3.70 | 2.80 | |
| Grosvenor | 2.23 | 3.40 | 3.10 | |
| LeoVegas | 2.28 | 3.50 | 3.15 | |
| LeoVegas | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.88 | |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.14 | 3.25 | 2.95 | |
| Marathonbet | Best price: 2.32 | 3.36 | 3.18 | |
| NordicBet | 2.32 | 3.45 | 2.95 | |
| Paddy Power | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.75 | |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.23 | Best price: 3.25 | |
| PMU | 2.12 | 3.20 | 2.90 | |
| Suprabets | 2.24 | 3.10 | 3.12 | |
| Tipico | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.10 | |
| Unibet | 2.28 | 3.50 | 3.15 | |
| Unibet | 2.23 | 3.45 | 3.10 | |
| Unibet | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.90 | |
| Unibet | 2.10 | 3.30 | 2.80 | |
| Virgin Bet | 2.14 | 3.25 | 2.95 | |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.75 | |
| Winamax | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.85 | |
| Winamax | 2.05 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 2.5
no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 6.0%
Over 2.5
1.65 at Betsson
collected
no-vig reference 1.7059.0% implieddifference −1.6pp
Under 2.5
2.43 at Bovada
collected
no-vig reference 2.4441.0% implieddifference −0.1pp
Over 2.5 held from 1.60 to 1.60 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected
| Book | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | 1.64 | 2.20 | |
| Betsson | Best price: 1.65 | 2.26 | |
| Bovada | 1.57 | Best price: 2.43 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| NordicBet | 1.62 | 2.22 | |
| Tipico | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 2.30 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 3.5
6 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown
Over 3.5
2.65 at Unibet
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3.5
1.50 at Unibet
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
| Book | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo | 2.60 | 1.47 | |
| Grosvenor | 2.60 | 1.47 | |
| LeoVegas | 2.60 | 1.47 | |
| PMU | 2.45 | 1.40 | |
| Unibet | Best price: 2.65 | Best price: 1.50 | |
| Unibet | 2.60 | 1.47 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams to score
no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 6.7%
Both teams score
1.52 at LiveScore Bet +1
collected
no-vig reference 1.6062.5% implieddifference −3.3pp
Not both teams score
2.50 at Betfred +2
collected
no-vig reference 2.6737.5% implieddifference −2.5pp
Both teams score held from 1.50 to 1.50 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected
| Book | Both teams score | Not both teams score | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfred | 1.50 | Best price: 2.50 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.47 | 2.50 | |
| LiveScore Bet | Best price: 1.52 | 2.43 | |
| Virgin Bet | 1.52 | 2.43 | |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 2.50 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Paris FC 29d, Rennes 29d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Paris FC.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Draw
Match result+0.6pp differencecombined3.50 at Betfred
combined fair 3.4229 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
estimate 29% · price implies 29% · +2.2% expected return if the estimate is right
Combined estimate puts Draw at 29%; best collected price 3.50 at betfred_uk implies 29% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Questions
Who is most likely to win Paris FC vs Rennes?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Paris FC the most likely outcome at 41%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 59%.
How does Clauseground predict Paris FC vs Rennes?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.