Lille vs Brest — market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Lille
58% means we estimate about 58 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Lille 58% · Draw 23% · Brest 19%
2 · Understand the price
Brest
5.50 decimal odds
Leovegas se · US +450
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.50 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.5 percentage points
Our estimate is 19%; the price implies 18%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 30 books quote this market · margin removed 5.6%
Lille
1.64 at LeoVegas +1
collected
no-vig reference 1.6759.9% implieddifference −1.1pp
Draw
4.30 at LeoVegas +2
collected
no-vig reference 4.4422.5% implieddifference −0.7pp
Brest
5.50 at LeoVegas +1
collected
no-vig reference 5.7017.5% implieddifference −0.6pp
Lille held from 1.58 to 1.58 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
Every book’s current price — 30 venues collected
| Book | Lille | Draw | Brest | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 1.61 | 3.90 | 4.80 | |
| Betclic | 1.53 | 4.10 | 4.90 | |
| Betfred | 1.60 | 4.20 | 5.00 | |
| BetRivers | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.10 | |
| Betsson | 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.30 | |
| Betway | 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.00 | |
| Bovada | 1.59 | 4.10 | 5.00 | |
| BoyleSports | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.75 | |
| DraftKings | 1.59 | 4.10 | 5.00 | |
| FanDuel | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.30 | |
| Grosvenor | 1.60 | 4.20 | 5.25 | |
| LeoVegas | Best price: 1.64 | Best price: 4.30 | Best price: 5.50 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.58 | 4.00 | 4.70 | |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.56 | 3.90 | 4.90 | |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 4.25 | 5.25 | |
| NordicBet | 1.60 | 4.05 | 5.40 | |
| Paddy Power | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | 4.20 | 5.40 | |
| PMU | 1.54 | 3.85 | 4.80 | |
| Sky Bet | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Suprabets | 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.10 | |
| Tipico | 1.55 | 4.30 | 5.20 | |
| Unibet | 1.64 | 4.30 | 5.50 | |
| Unibet | 1.61 | 4.20 | 5.25 | |
| Unibet | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.75 | |
| Unibet | 1.53 | 3.80 | 4.50 | |
| Virgin Bet | 1.56 | 3.90 | 4.90 | |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.80 | |
| Winamax | 1.58 | 4.10 | 4.50 | |
| Winamax | 1.52 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 2.5
no-vig from William Hill alone · 12 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%
Over 2.5
1.70 at Bovada
collected
no-vig reference 1.7856.3% implieddifference −2.5pp
Under 2.5
2.23 at Unibet
collected
no-vig reference 2.2943.7% implieddifference −1.1pp
Over 2.5 held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 12 venues collected
| Book | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | 1.64 | 2.20 | |
| Betsson | 1.68 | 2.21 | |
| Bovada | Best price: 1.70 | 2.18 | |
| Grosvenor | 1.64 | 2.20 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.64 | 2.20 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.62 | 2.12 | |
| NordicBet | 1.65 | 2.18 | |
| PMU | 1.56 | 2.08 | |
| Tipico | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| Unibet | 1.67 | Best price: 2.23 | |
| Unibet | 1.64 | 2.20 | |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 2.15 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams to score
no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%
Both teams score
1.70 at William Hill
collected
no-vig reference 1.8155.3% implieddifference −3.6pp
Not both teams score
2.10 at Betfred +3
collected
no-vig reference 2.2444.7% implieddifference −2.9pp
Both teams score held from 1.70 to 1.70 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected
| Book | Both teams score | Not both teams score | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfred | 1.67 | Best price: 2.10 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.67 | 2.08 | |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| Virgin Bet | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| William Hill | Best price: 1.70 | 2.10 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Lille 27d, Brest 27d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Lille.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
No current price clears the publication threshold.
The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Lille vs Brest?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Lille the most likely outcome at 58%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 42%.
How does Clauseground predict Lille vs Brest?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.