Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano — market analysis & odds

Mon 19 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Getafe
38% means we estimate about 38 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Getafe 38% · Draw 29% · Rayo Vallecano 33%
2 · Understand the price
Getafe
2.69 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +169
collected 09:22 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.69 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.4 percentage points
Our estimate is 38%; the price implies 37%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 11:10 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Getafemodel 40% · market 37% (model vs market +3.3pp)

Drawmodel 30% · market 29% (model vs market +0.6pp)

Rayo Vallecanomodel 30% · market 34% (model vs market −3.9pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

09:22 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 27 books quote this market · margin removed 10.1%

Getafe
2.69 at Marathonbet
collected 09:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.7236.8% implieddifference −0.4pp
Draw
3.25 at Bovada
collected 09:22 UTC
no-vig reference 3.4129.3% implieddifference −1.5pp
Rayo Vallecano
2.95 at BetRivers +3
collected 09:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.9533.9% implieddifference +0.0pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Getafe	2.69Marathonbet	09:22 UTC	2.7236.8% implied	−0.4pp
Draw	3.25Bovada	09:22 UTC	3.4129.3% implied	−1.5pp
Rayo Vallecano	2.95BetRivers +3	09:22 UTC	2.9533.9% implied	+0.0pp

Getafe held from 2.47 to 2.47 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

GetafeDrawRayo Vallecano

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 26–27 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 27 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Getafe	Draw	Rayo Vallecano	Collected
Betclic	2.45	2.95	2.68	09:22 UTC
BetRivers	2.60	3.15	Best price: 2.95	09:22 UTC
Betsson	2.62	3.10	2.82	09:22 UTC
Betway	2.50	3.20	2.62	09:22 UTC
Bovada	2.58	Best price: 3.25	2.80	09:22 UTC
BoyleSports	2.50	3.00	2.70	09:22 UTC
DraftKings	2.55	3.20	2.75	09:22 UTC
FanDuel	2.65	3.10	2.75	09:22 UTC
Grosvenor	2.60	3.15	2.95	09:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.55	3.00	2.75	09:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.48	3.00	2.80	09:22 UTC
LiveScore Bet	2.48	3.00	2.80	09:22 UTC
Marathonbet	Best price: 2.69	3.12	2.85	09:22 UTC
NordicBet	2.62	3.10	2.82	09:22 UTC
Paddy Power	2.60	3.00	2.70	09:22 UTC
Pinnacle	2.47	3.10	2.68	09:22 UTC
PMU	2.43	2.95	2.75	09:22 UTC
Sky Bet	2.60	3.10	2.75	09:22 UTC
Tipico	2.65	3.00	2.85	09:22 UTC
Unibet	2.60	3.15	2.95	09:22 UTC
Unibet	2.60	3.15	2.95	09:22 UTC
Unibet	2.60	3.00	2.75	09:22 UTC
Unibet	2.35	2.95	2.65	09:22 UTC
Virgin Bet	2.45	2.95	2.80	09:22 UTC
William Hill	2.60	2.90	2.80	09:22 UTC
Winamax	2.55	3.10	2.70	09:22 UTC
Winamax	2.40	2.90	2.50	09:22 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

09:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 11 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%

Over 2.5
2.52 at Betsson
collected 09:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.6338.0% implieddifference −1.7pp
Under 2.5
1.57 at Tipico
collected 09:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6162.0% implieddifference −1.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	2.52Betsson	09:22 UTC	2.6338.0% implied	−1.7pp
Under 2.5	1.57Tipico	09:22 UTC	1.6162.0% implied	−1.7pp

Over 2.5 held from 2.45 to 2.45 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 11 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 11 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
BetRivers	2.40	1.55	09:22 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 2.52	1.54	09:22 UTC
Grosvenor	2.40	1.55	09:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.40	1.55	09:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.38	1.50	09:22 UTC
NordicBet	2.48	1.52	09:22 UTC
PMU	2.28	1.47	09:22 UTC
Tipico	2.35	Best price: 1.57	09:22 UTC
Unibet	2.40	1.55	09:22 UTC
Unibet	2.40	1.56	09:22 UTC
William Hill	2.45	1.50	09:22 UTC

Both teams to score

09:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 5.9%

Both teams score
2.05 at William Hill
collected 09:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1746.1% implieddifference −2.7pp
Not both teams score
1.76 at LiveScore Bet +1
collected 09:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8553.9% implieddifference −2.9pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	2.05William Hill	09:22 UTC	2.1746.1% implied	−2.7pp
Not both teams score	1.76LiveScore Bet +1	09:22 UTC	1.8553.9% implied	−2.9pp

Both teams score held from 2.05 to 2.05 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
LeoVegas	2.02	1.70	09:22 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.96	Best price: 1.76	09:22 UTC
Paddy Power	2.00	1.73	09:22 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.96	1.76	09:22 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 2.05	1.75	09:22 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Getafe 29d, Rayo Vallecano 30d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Getafe.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Over 2.5

Totals+0.8pp differencecombined

2.52 at Betsson

combined fair 2.4712 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 40%model 48% · market 38% (model vs market +9.9pp)

estimate 40% · price implies 40% · +1.9% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Over 2.5 at 40%; best collected price 2.52 at betsson implies 40% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 11:10 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Getafe the most likely outcome at 38%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 62%.

How does Clauseground predict Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.