Celta Vigo vs Alavés — market analysis & odds

Sun 18 Oct, 14:15 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Celta Vigo
46% means we estimate about 46 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Celta Vigo 46% · Draw 28% · Alavés 26%
2 · Understand the price
Alavés
3.95 decimal odds
Nordicbet · US +295
collected 09:22 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.95 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 26%; the price implies 25%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 09:30 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Celta Vigomodel 40% · market 48% (model vs market −7.3pp)

Drawmodel 29% · market 28% (model vs market +1.5pp)

Alavésmodel 30% · market 25% (model vs market +5.8pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

09:22 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 19 books quote this market · margin removed 5.3%

Celta Vigo
2.02 at Betsson +1
collected 09:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1147.5% implieddifference −2.0pp
Draw
3.48 at Marathonbet
collected 09:22 UTC
no-vig reference 3.5827.9% implieddifference −0.8pp
Alavés
3.95 at NordicBet
collected 09:22 UTC
no-vig reference 4.0724.6% implieddifference −0.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Celta Vigo	2.02Betsson +1	09:22 UTC	2.1147.5% implied	−2.0pp
Draw	3.48Marathonbet	09:22 UTC	3.5827.9% implied	−0.8pp
Alavés	3.95NordicBet	09:22 UTC	4.0724.6% implied	−0.8pp

Celta Vigo held from 2.00 to 2.00 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Celta VigoDrawAlavés

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 14–19 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 19 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Celta Vigo	Draw	Alavés	Collected
Betclic	1.91	3.17	3.58	09:22 UTC
Betfred	2.00	3.40	3.75	09:22 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 2.02	3.25	3.90	09:22 UTC
Betway	1.95	3.30	3.60	09:22 UTC
Bovada	2.00	3.40	3.85	09:22 UTC
BoyleSports	1.91	3.25	3.60	09:22 UTC
FanDuel	2.00	3.40	3.80	09:22 UTC
LeoVegas	1.98	3.25	3.60	09:22 UTC
Marathonbet	2.00	Best price: 3.48	3.90	09:22 UTC
NordicBet	2.02	3.30	Best price: 3.95	09:22 UTC
Paddy Power	1.95	3.30	3.75	09:22 UTC
Pinnacle	2.00	3.40	3.87	09:22 UTC
Sky Bet	2.00	3.30	3.75	09:22 UTC
Tipico	1.97	3.40	3.90	09:22 UTC
Unibet	1.98	3.25	3.70	09:22 UTC
Unibet	1.84	3.20	3.60	09:22 UTC
William Hill	1.95	3.25	3.80	09:22 UTC
Winamax	1.96	3.35	3.60	09:22 UTC
Winamax	1.86	3.10	3.35	09:22 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

09:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 7.1%

Over 2.5
2.15 at William Hill
collected 09:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.3043.4% implieddifference −3.1pp
Under 2.5
1.75 at Betsson
collected 09:22 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7756.6% implieddifference −0.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	2.15William Hill	09:22 UTC	2.3043.4% implied	−3.1pp
Under 2.5	1.75Betsson	09:22 UTC	1.7756.6% implied	−0.6pp

Over 2.5 held from 2.15 to 2.15 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–7 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	2.10	Best price: 1.75	09:22 UTC
LeoVegas	2.05	1.64	09:22 UTC
NordicBet	2.08	1.72	09:22 UTC
Tipico	2.05	1.72	09:22 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 2.15	1.65	09:22 UTC

Both teams to score

09:22 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 8.1%

Both teams score
1.91 at Betfred
collected 09:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0050.0% implieddifference −2.4pp
Not both teams score
1.85 at Paddy Power +1
collected 09:22 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0050.0% implieddifference −4.1pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.91Betfred	09:22 UTC	2.0050.0% implied	−2.4pp
Not both teams score	1.85Paddy Power +1	09:22 UTC	2.0050.0% implied	−4.1pp

Both teams score held from 1.85 to 1.85 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.91	1.80	09:22 UTC
LeoVegas	1.88	1.83	09:22 UTC
Paddy Power	1.85	Best price: 1.85	09:22 UTC
William Hill	1.85	1.85	09:22 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Celta Vigo 29d, Alavés 29d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Celta Vigo.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Alavés

Match result+0.7pp differencecombined

3.95 at NordicBet

combined fair 3.8428 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 26%model 30% · market 25% (model vs market +5.8pp)

estimate 26% · price implies 25% · +2.7% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Alavés at 26%; best collected price 3.95 at nordicbet implies 25% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 09:30 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Celta Vigo vs Alavés?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Celta Vigo the most likely outcome at 46%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 54%.

How does Clauseground predict Celta Vigo vs Alavés?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.