CA Osasuna vs Real Racing Club de Santander — market analysis & odds

Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
CA Osasuna
49% means we estimate about 49 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: CA Osasuna 49% · Draw 28% · Real Racing Club de Santander 23%
2 · Understand the price
Real Racing Club de Santander
4.60 decimal odds
Bovada · US +360
collected 05:02 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.60 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.3 percentage points
Our estimate is 23%; the price implies 22%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 05:22 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

CA Osasunamodel 41% · market 52% (model vs market −11.3pp)

Drawmodel 29% · market 27% (model vs market +1.8pp)

Real Racing Club de Santandermodel 30% · market 21% (model vs market +9.5pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

05:02 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 20 books quote this market · margin removed 5.5%

CA Osasuna
1.91 at Sky Bet
collected 03:22 UTC · 2h old than this market’s newest quote
no-vig reference 1.9351.8% implieddifference −0.5pp
Draw
3.75 at Betfred
collected 05:02 UTC
no-vig reference 3.6427.5% implieddifference +0.8pp
Real Racing Club de Santander
4.60 at Bovada
collected 05:02 UTC
no-vig reference 4.8320.7% implieddifference −1.0pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
CA Osasuna	1.91Sky Bet	03:22 UTC2h old than this market’s newest quote	1.9351.8% implied	−0.5pp
Draw	3.75Betfred	05:02 UTC	3.6427.5% implied	+0.8pp
Real Racing Club de Santander	4.60Bovada	05:02 UTC	4.8320.7% implied	−1.0pp

CA Osasuna held from 1.83 to 1.83 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

CA OsasunaDrawReal Racing Club de Santander

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 19–20 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 20 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	CA Osasuna	Draw	Real Racing Club de Santander	Collected
Betclic	1.78	3.45	3.73	05:02 UTC
Betfred	1.90	Best price: 3.75	3.75	05:02 UTC
Betsson	1.90	3.45	4.10	05:02 UTC
Betway	1.80	3.40	4.20	05:02 UTC
Bovada	1.83	3.45	Best price: 4.60	05:02 UTC
BoyleSports	1.75	3.40	4.00	05:02 UTC
DraftKings	1.83	3.50	4.20	05:02 UTC
FanDuel	1.83	3.60	3.90	05:02 UTC
LeoVegas	1.85	3.55	3.75	05:02 UTC
Marathonbet	1.89	3.60	4.25	05:02 UTC
NordicBet	1.90	3.45	4.10	05:02 UTC
Paddy Power	1.87	3.60	3.80	05:02 UTC
Pinnacle	1.83	3.45	4.58	05:02 UTC
Sky Bet	Best price: 1.91	3.60	3.80	03:22 UTC
Tipico	1.80	3.70	4.30	05:02 UTC
Unibet	1.85	3.60	3.80	05:02 UTC
Unibet	1.73	3.40	3.70	05:02 UTC
William Hill	1.85	3.50	4.00	05:02 UTC
Winamax	1.84	3.65	3.75	05:02 UTC
Winamax	1.74	3.40	3.45	05:02 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

05:02 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Over 2.5
1.75 at Betsson
collected 05:02 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8155.3% implieddifference −1.9pp
Under 2.5
2.10 at Betsson +2
collected 05:02 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2444.7% implieddifference −2.9pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.75Betsson	05:02 UTC	1.8155.3% implied	−1.9pp
Under 2.5	2.10Betsson +2	05:02 UTC	2.2444.7% implied	−2.9pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.70 to 1.70 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	Best price: 1.75	Best price: 2.10	05:02 UTC
LeoVegas	1.67	2.02	05:02 UTC
NordicBet	1.72	2.08	05:02 UTC
Tipico	1.70	2.10	05:02 UTC
William Hill	1.70	2.10	05:02 UTC

Both teams to score

05:02 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

Both teams score
1.67 at Betfred +1
collected 05:02 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7856.3% implieddifference −3.6pp
Not both teams score
2.25 at Paddy Power
collected 05:02 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2943.7% implieddifference −0.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.67Betfred +1	05:02 UTC	1.7856.3% implied	−3.6pp
Not both teams score	2.25Paddy Power	05:02 UTC	2.2943.7% implied	−0.7pp

Both teams score held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.67	2.10	05:02 UTC
LeoVegas	1.61	2.18	05:02 UTC
Paddy Power	1.57	Best price: 2.25	05:02 UTC
William Hill	1.67	2.15	05:02 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: CA Osasuna 29d, Real Racing Club de Santander 29d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for CA Osasuna.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Real Racing Club de Santander

Match result+1.3pp differencecombined

4.60 at Bovada

combined fair 4.3320 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 23%model 30% · market 21% (model vs market +9.5pp)

estimate 23% · price implies 22% · +6.1% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Real Racing Club de Santander at 23%; best collected price 4.60 at bovada implies 22% — a +1.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 05:10 UTC

Draw

Match result+1.3pp differencecombined

3.75 at Betfred

combined fair 3.5820 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 28%model 29% · market 27% (model vs market +1.8pp)

estimate 28% · price implies 27% · +4.7% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 28%; best collected price 3.75 at betfred_uk implies 27% — a +1.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 05:10 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win CA Osasuna vs Real Racing Club de Santander?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes CA Osasuna the most likely outcome at 49%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 51%.

How does Clauseground predict CA Osasuna vs Real Racing Club de Santander?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.