Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao — market analysis & odds

Sat 17 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Athletic Bilbao
44% means we estimate about 44 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Valencia 27% · Draw 28% · Athletic Bilbao 44%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
3.50 decimal odds
Betfred uk · US +250
collected 20:42 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.50 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
−0.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 28%; the price implies 29%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
The price implies a higher chance than our estimate

Updated 21:02 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Valenciamodel 30% · market 27% (model vs market +3.0pp)

Drawmodel 30% · market 28% (model vs market +2.1pp)

Athletic Bilbaomodel 40% · market 46% (model vs market −5.1pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

20:42 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 28 books quote this market · margin removed 5.1%

Valencia
3.60 at BetRivers +4
collected 20:42 UTC
no-vig reference 3.7626.6% implieddifference −1.2pp
Draw
3.50 at Betfred
collected 20:42 UTC
no-vig reference 3.5827.9% implieddifference −0.7pp
Athletic Bilbao
2.12 at BetRivers +4
collected 20:42 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2045.5% implieddifference −1.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Valencia	3.60BetRivers +4	20:42 UTC	3.7626.6% implied	−1.2pp
Draw	3.50Betfred	20:42 UTC	3.5827.9% implied	−0.7pp
Athletic Bilbao	2.12BetRivers +4	20:42 UTC	2.2045.5% implied	−1.6pp

Valencia held from 3.58 to 3.58 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

ValenciaDrawAthletic Bilbao

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 17–28 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 28 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Valencia	Draw	Athletic Bilbao	Collected
Betclic	3.23	3.23	2.00	20:42 UTC
Betfred	3.40	Best price: 3.50	2.10	20:42 UTC
BetRivers	Best price: 3.60	3.45	Best price: 2.12	20:42 UTC
Betsson	3.55	3.40	2.08	20:42 UTC
Betway	3.40	3.30	2.05	20:42 UTC
Bovada	3.55	3.40	2.09	20:42 UTC
BoyleSports	3.40	3.25	2.00	20:42 UTC
DraftKings	3.45	3.35	2.05	20:42 UTC
FanDuel	3.40	3.40	2.10	20:42 UTC
Grosvenor	3.60	3.45	2.12	20:42 UTC
LeoVegas	3.40	3.30	2.05	20:42 UTC
LeoVegas	3.25	3.30	2.08	20:42 UTC
LiveScore Bet	3.40	3.30	2.05	20:42 UTC
Marathonbet	3.52	3.48	2.12	20:42 UTC
NordicBet	3.55	3.40	2.08	20:42 UTC
Paddy Power	3.30	3.40	2.05	20:42 UTC
Pinnacle	3.58	3.41	2.09	20:42 UTC
PMU	3.30	3.20	2.00	20:42 UTC
Sky Bet	3.30	3.40	2.05	20:42 UTC
Tipico	3.60	3.40	2.05	20:42 UTC
Unibet	3.60	3.45	2.12	20:42 UTC
Unibet	3.60	3.45	2.12	20:42 UTC
Unibet	3.30	3.30	2.08	20:42 UTC
Unibet	3.20	3.20	1.93	20:42 UTC
Virgin Bet	3.35	3.20	2.02	20:42 UTC
William Hill	3.30	3.30	2.10	20:42 UTC
Winamax	3.25	3.40	2.05	20:42 UTC
Winamax	3.00	3.15	1.96	20:42 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

20:42 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 4.2%

Over 2.5
2.05 at William Hill
collected 20:42 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1247.3% implieddifference −1.5pp
Under 2.5
1.82 at Bovada +1
collected 20:42 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9052.7% implieddifference −2.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	2.05William Hill	20:42 UTC	2.1247.3% implied	−1.5pp
Under 2.5	1.82Bovada +1	20:42 UTC	1.9052.7% implied	−2.2pp

Over 2.5 held from 2.03 to 2.03 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6–13 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
BetRivers	2.00	1.77	20:42 UTC
Betsson	2.02	1.81	20:42 UTC
Bovada	2.02	Best price: 1.82	20:42 UTC
Grosvenor	2.00	1.77	20:42 UTC
LeoVegas	2.00	1.77	20:42 UTC
LeoVegas	1.95	1.73	20:42 UTC
NordicBet	1.98	1.78	20:42 UTC
Pinnacle	2.03	1.82	20:42 UTC
PMU	1.88	1.68	20:42 UTC
Tipico	1.97	1.80	20:42 UTC
Unibet	2.00	1.77	20:42 UTC
Unibet	2.00	1.79	20:42 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 2.05	1.75	20:42 UTC

Both teams to score

20:42 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 6.8%

Both teams score
1.80 at Betfred +3
collected 20:42 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9252.0% implieddifference −3.6pp
Not both teams score
1.95 at William Hill
collected 20:42 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0848.0% implieddifference −3.3pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.80Betfred +3	20:42 UTC	1.9252.0% implied	−3.6pp
Not both teams score	1.95William Hill	20:42 UTC	2.0848.0% implied	−3.3pp

Both teams score held from 1.80 to 1.80 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–6 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.80	1.91	20:42 UTC
LeoVegas	1.80	1.92	20:42 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.78	1.93	20:42 UTC
Paddy Power	1.80	1.91	20:42 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.78	1.93	20:42 UTC
William Hill	1.80	Best price: 1.95	20:42 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Valencia 27d, Athletic Bilbao 28d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Valencia.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Athletic Bilbao the most likely outcome at 44%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 56%.

How does Clauseground predict Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.