Villarreal vs Elche CF — market analysis & odds

Sat 17 Oct, 14:15 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Villarreal
61% means we estimate about 61 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Villarreal 61% · Draw 22% · Elche CF 18%
2 · Understand the price
Elche CF
6.90 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +590
collected 08:02 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 6.90 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+3.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 18%; the price implies 14%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 08:10 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Villarrealmodel 49% · market 65% (model vs market −15.6pp)

Drawmodel 28% · market 20% (model vs market +8.0pp)

Elche CFmodel 23% · market 16% (model vs market +7.6pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

08:02 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 20 books quote this market · margin removed 5.8%

Villarreal
1.47 at Betsson +1
collected 08:02 UTC
no-vig reference 1.5564.7% implieddifference −3.3pp
Draw
5.20 at Tipico
collected 08:02 UTC
no-vig reference 5.1019.6% implieddifference +0.4pp
Elche CF
6.90 at Marathonbet
collected 08:02 UTC
no-vig reference 6.3815.7% implieddifference +1.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Villarreal	1.47Betsson +1	08:02 UTC	1.5564.7% implied	−3.3pp
Draw	5.20Tipico	08:02 UTC	5.1019.6% implied	+0.4pp
Elche CF	6.90Marathonbet	08:02 UTC	6.3815.7% implied	+1.2pp

Villarreal held from 1.46 to 1.46 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

VillarrealDrawElche CF

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 14–20 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 20 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Villarreal	Draw	Elche CF	Collected
Betclic	1.36	4.70	5.75	08:02 UTC
Betfred	1.44	4.60	6.50	08:02 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 1.47	4.60	6.40	08:02 UTC
Betway	1.45	4.75	5.50	08:02 UTC
Bovada	1.47	4.85	6.00	08:02 UTC
BoyleSports	1.40	4.50	5.50	08:02 UTC
DraftKings	1.45	4.70	5.75	08:02 UTC
FanDuel	1.38	4.80	6.50	08:02 UTC
LeoVegas	1.40	4.90	5.75	08:02 UTC
Marathonbet	1.45	4.80	Best price: 6.90	08:02 UTC
NordicBet	1.46	4.55	6.30	08:02 UTC
Paddy Power	1.36	4.75	6.00	08:02 UTC
Pinnacle	1.46	4.82	6.03	08:02 UTC
Sky Bet	1.40	4.75	6.25	08:02 UTC
Tipico	1.42	Best price: 5.20	6.20	08:02 UTC
Unibet	1.40	5.00	6.00	08:02 UTC
Unibet	1.33	4.70	5.80	08:02 UTC
William Hill	1.44	4.50	6.00	08:02 UTC
Winamax	1.39	5.10	5.80	08:02 UTC
Winamax	1.34	4.60	5.20	08:02 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

08:02 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 6.5%

Over 2.5
1.49 at Betsson
collected 08:02 UTC
no-vig reference 1.5365.2% implieddifference −1.9pp
Under 2.5
2.70 at William Hill
collected 08:02 UTC
no-vig reference 2.8834.8% implieddifference −2.3pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.49Betsson	08:02 UTC	1.5365.2% implied	−1.9pp
Under 2.5	2.70William Hill	08:02 UTC	2.8834.8% implied	−2.3pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.44 to 1.44 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–3 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	Best price: 1.49	2.67	08:02 UTC
NordicBet	1.47	2.62	08:02 UTC
William Hill	1.44	Best price: 2.70	08:02 UTC

Both teams to score

08:02 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 7.2%

Both teams score
1.62 at Betfred
collected 08:02 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6859.4% implieddifference −2.3pp
Not both teams score
2.30 at William Hill
collected 08:02 UTC
no-vig reference 2.4640.6% implieddifference −2.9pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.62Betfred	08:02 UTC	1.6859.4% implied	−2.3pp
Not both teams score	2.30William Hill	08:02 UTC	2.4640.6% implied	−2.9pp

Both teams score held from 1.57 to 1.57 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.62	2.20	08:02 UTC
LeoVegas	1.60	2.18	08:02 UTC
Paddy Power	1.57	2.25	08:02 UTC
William Hill	1.57	Best price: 2.30	08:02 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Villarreal 27d, Elche CF 29d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Villarreal.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Elche CF

Match result+3.1pp differencecombined

6.90 at Marathonbet

combined fair 5.6920 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 18%model 23% · market 16% (model vs market +7.6pp)

estimate 18% · price implies 14% · +21.2% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Elche CF at 18%; best collected price 6.90 at marathonbet implies 14% — a +3.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 08:10 UTC

Draw

Match result+2.4pp differencecombined

5.20 at Tipico

combined fair 4.6320 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 22%model 28% · market 20% (model vs market +8.0pp)

estimate 22% · price implies 19% · +12.3% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 22%; best collected price 5.20 at tipico_de implies 19% — a +2.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 08:10 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Villarreal vs Elche CF?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Villarreal the most likely outcome at 61%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 39%.

How does Clauseground predict Villarreal vs Elche CF?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.